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Country Economic Forecasts > North Korea

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 2 pages

Although drought hit farm production in 2014-15, GDP growth remains stable but low, averaging just over 1% since 2011. Loss of trade and aid due to ongoing strategic weapons tests has forced the government to allow more private enterprise. This has averted food shortages, quelled rural discontent and expanded a middle-class whose rising wealth, especially in Pyongyang, strengthens loyalty to Kim Jong-un.

Bomb tests led South Korea to suspend joint industrial operations at Kaesong, which stayed closed through Q2 despite the North's threat to seize assets there. China, which backed new UN trade sanctions in March, may also have withheld bilateral trade to show displeasure at recent tests, preventing any pick-up of growth in 2016.

GDP growth could pick up gradually to around 2% in 2018-19 provided the government maintains joint industrial and trade links with China and allows private firms to re-invest and expand.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > North Korea
North Koreaand#58;

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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