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Country Economic Forecasts > Oman

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

The budget deficit widened by a massive 83% to OMR3.5bn in H1 2016 as total revenues slumped 32% with oil prices continuing to fall on a year-on-year basis. At the same time, spending increased nearly 2% as spending on investment and defence continued to rise, more than offsetting cuts to current items including wages and subsidies. We see the fiscal deficit at a massive 20% of GDP for 2016 as a whole - far larger than in its Gulf neighbours - before spending cuts together with various measures to increase non-oil revenues such as higher vehicle license costs, air departure tax and corporation tax help to reduce the deficit sharply from next year.

Despite the severe fiscal challenge, headline GDP growth held up well last year at 5.7%, albeit distorted somewhat by changes in taxes and subsidies. Growth is seen slowing to 2.3% in 2016 with non-oil growth slowing to just 1.8% due to the cumulative impact of lower oil prices and fiscal consolidation on economic confidence, private consumption and government spending itself.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Oman
Omanand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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