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Country Economic Forecasts > Pakistan

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

Although agriculture was weaker than expected due to a sharp drop in the cotton harvest, GDP growth rose to an eight-year high of 4.7% in the 2015/16 fiscal year (July-June), and a further pick-up to around 5% is expected in 2016/17.

With the IMF's US$6.7bn three-year EFF having now expired, the continued difficult external environment and ongoing power shortages mean that the outlook remains challenging. But growth prospects will be helped in the coming years by recovering agriculture and rising investment, the latter boosted by the US$46bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Various projects are already under way, despite the siting of some of the schemes proving contentious with India. Overall, we still expect GDP growth of about 5.5% a year in 2018-20.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Pakistan
Pakistanand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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