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Country Economic Forecasts > Poland

  • December 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

The Q3 GDP release confirmed a sharp slowdown in growth to 0.2% in quarterly terms and 2.2% year-on-year, in line with the flash estimate. The breakdown of components was in line with our expectation that the surge in external demand in Q2 would not last and that investment would continue to be a drag on growth, leaving consumption the only driver of growth. But the slump in investment (down 2.4% on the quarter and 7.2% on the year, the worst decline in six years) exceeded our expectations. Given that EU-funded investment was very weak in Q1-Q2 and would have little room to fall further in quarterly terms, this suggests that private investment has also begun to contract.

Looking ahead, growth will remain underpinned by consumption, supported by both labour market tightness and fiscal easing, while investment remains subdued and external demand volatile and fragile. Despite our already below-consensus forecast, the disappointing Q3 reading means we have cut 2016 growth further from 2.7% to 2.4%, and 2017 growth from 3.2% to 2.4%.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Poland

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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