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Country Economic Forecasts > Poland

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 12 pages

Latest high-frequency indicators still point to a pick-up in quarterly GDP growth to 0.4% in Q4, meaning that the economy grew by 2.4% in 2016 overall. Following a 0.4% contraction in Q3, industrial production rebounded by a solid 1.6% in Q4, lifting annual expansion to 3.2%. Construction activity may also be reaching a trough, having shrunk by only 8% on the year in December after the 15-20% contraction seen in previous months. Investment is therefore likely to be less of a drag in Q4, but still nearly 5% down in 2016 overall, the weakest performance since 2002.

Growth in 2017 will depend heavily on the extent to which absorption of EU funds accelerates from 2016's very low level. Meanwhile, automotive output is expected to shrink after a strong 2016, reducing industrial production growth to only 1.1%. As a result, investment will remain broadly flat in 2017. With external demand broadly neutral, we see 2017 GDP growth accelerating in quarterly terms, particularly in H2, but still staying relatively subdued at 2.4% overall.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Poland

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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