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Country Economic Forecasts > Puerto Rico

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

Puerto Rico's debt saga continues. As expected, the US territory failed to pay its creditors nearly US$1bn in July 2016. Governor Ricardo Rossello, who took office at the beginning of January 2017, has pledged to work with bondholders and federal overseers. He is now tasked to present a new fiscal plan by the end of January but has been pleading for an extension.

Once a booming manufacturing hub for the US mainland, Puerto Rico fell into recession twelve years ago and is still struggling to resolve its economic problems. Moreover, we expect the contraction to persist for a few more years yet, as the government continues to deal with its crippling debt (more than US$70bn). By 2019 we estimate that the territory's real GDP will be 12% smaller than in 2004.

As a US territory the island does not have access to federal bankruptcy courts like US states. The US Congress therefore passed the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act in June 2016 just before a nearly US$1bn debt payment was due. The rescue law includes a provision which prevents creditors from suing Puerto Rico over missed debt payments until mid-February 2017 and led to the creation of a federal oversight board tasked with managing the island's fiscal crisis.

But Puerto Rico's problems go beyond debt. Between 2005 and 2015, almost 10% of the population left the island.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Puerto Rico
Puerto Ricoand#58;

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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