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Country Economic Forecasts > Romania

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 8 pages

Flash estimates show that Q3 GDP growth slowed slightly more than expected, rising 0.6% on the quarter and with the year-on-year increase down to 4.6%, reflecting the gradual fading of the expansionary fiscal policies that had dominated earlier this year. We expect Q4 to be slightly stronger than Q3, but still reflecting a moderate slowdown in H2; we now forecast 4.8% growth for 2016, down from 5.1% seen last month.

But growth is being driven by pro-cyclical fiscal easing, which is causing some concern. The budget deficit has moved more firmly into negative territory following the series of tax cuts and public sector wage increases. Although boosting real incomes and output growth in the short term, these measures are undermining the hard work of the previous few years in getting the public finances under control. The budget deficit is forecast to rise to 3% of GDP this year and then 3.2% in 2017.

After this year's very strong performance, we forecast a slowdown in GDP growth to 3.1% in 2017 and then around 2% a year in 2018-19. And risks are tilted to the downside, as fiscal policy puts more pressure on government revenues and leads to growing imbalances throughout the economy.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Romania
Romaniaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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