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Country Economic Forecasts > Russia

  • December 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

A conservative policy mix means that Russia's recovery
remains gradual, with GDP growth seen at just 1.2% in 2017 after an expected
0.6% contraction in 2016. Fiscal policy, which is set to remain restrictive,
which will continue to dampen growth, while a cautious monetary policy stance
will keep nominal interest rates high. Against this backdrop, we do not think
that sanctions will be significantly relaxed next year - indeed, the EU has extended
its sanctions against Russia by another six months until July 2017. Meanwhile,
the balance of risks facing the economy seem to have become more positive in
recent weeks. OPEC's agreement to cut production has boosted oil prices, which
has further strengthened the RUB rally, making it the best-performing EM
currency this year.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Russia

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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