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The Russian economy is emerging from a two-year recession, with monthly indicators pointing to marginally positive year-on-year real GDP growth in Q4 2016. But we think that a substantial economic recovery will remain elusive, and expect growth of just 1.2% in 2017 and 1.3% in 2018. Unlike in previous recoveries, consumer demand - weighed down by fiscal consolidation and a cautious monetary policy - will fail to provide a strong impetus to growth. However, the risks to our forecast are on the upside.
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The Shale Gas and Oil Report from ISA highlights the key developments in the fast-growing shale gas and oil industry. Moreover, this report highlights the developments in shale gas and oil industries outside ...
The economy has started to move out of recession but it will struggle to achieve any more than weak growth this year as the government will have to embark on a fresh round of austerity to rein in the large ...
Our growth forecast has barely changed with no new national accounts data and oil production rising broadly in line with expectations. The base case sees GDP growing by a forecast 4.3% pa over the forecast ...