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Country Economic Forecasts > Serbia

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 7 pages

Reviving export growth and strong inward investment raised GDP growth to an estimated 2.7% in 2016, while inflation slowed to about 1%. Lower inflation and a stable fiscal deficit (which at under 3% of GDP enabled public debt to level off) allowed a reduction in interest rates, promoting small business expansion and improving the backdrop for restructuring and sale of large state enterprises.

GDP growth is likely to slow to 2.2% in 2017 as political uncertainty rises ahead of the Q2 presidential election. The incumbent's battle with nationalist and socialist challengers is already provoking threats (especially over Kosovo) which could slow progress on EU talks, despite an ambitious target of opening 10-13 accession chapters.

Downside risks are balanced in the medium term by an emerging upside as trade and FDI are boosted by better access to an expanding EU market, new trade routes to the Middle East and China and a retained Russian axis whose value will rise if the US forces an easing of EU sanctions. Stability of FDI despite prolonged election uncertainties in 2016-17 highlights Serbia's re-emergence as a regional production hub, and growing chances of EU entry within 10 years.


Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Serbia
Serbiaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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