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Country Economic Forecasts > South Korea

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 11 pages

GDP growth registered a relatively robust 0.7% q/q in Q3 2016, underpinned by strong domestic demand, in particular private investment, offsetting a negative contribution from net exports. The better than expected Q3 outturn has prompted an upgrade to our full-year GDP forecast for 2016, but fundamentally our outlook for Korea has not changed, and we expect overall growth to slow over the next 12 months.

In particular, recent growth has been underpinned by a construction boom that is unlikely to be sustained going forward. The housing market is now showing signs of cooling. Meanwhile, the ongoing corporate restructuring of shipbuilding and other financially vulnerable sectors will constrain corporate profitability and weigh on non-construction investment growth. Private consumption has shown steady growth recently, but here too we expect growth to slow, undermined by rising inflation, weaker employment growth, and high levels of household leverage. Furthermore, sentiment is likely to deteriorate as the government is embroiled in a political scandal that will likely drag into next year and may bring down President Park Geun-Hye. However, the difficult background will mean that fiscal and monetary policy remains supportive of growth in the short term.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > South Korea
South Koreaand#58;

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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