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Country Economic Forecasts > Sri Lanka

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

Sri Lanka continues to face twin headwinds; first, sluggish global activity dampening export demand; second, adherence to fiscal consolidation constraining domestic demand. As a result, we see another year of sub-5% growth in 2016.

In June, Moody's reduced Sri Lanka's credit rating outlook to negative, highlighting concern about the fiscal position. But progress is being made. A 3-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of US$1.5bn from the IMF (agreed in June) will give Sri Lanka some financial flexibility. Moreover, the government has already demonstrated its commitment to fiscal reform, raising VAT from 11% to 15% in May.

The current account position was little changed in 2015 as the expected benefits from a reduced oil bill and continued strong growth in tourism were offset by falling goods exports and lower workers' remittances. But remittances have picked up this year, while tourism has maintained strong momentum. For 2016 as a whole we expect a deficit of 1.8% of GDP, down from 2.4% last year. However, the current account improvement of recent years could be dented if Brexit caused a marked slowdown in the UK and EU economies as these markets are key sources of tourists and export demand.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Sri Lanka
Sri Lankaand#58;

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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