The latest indicators on the performance of the Swiss economy in Q4 2016 are mixed. Exports of goods declined in October and November. But we expect any export weakness to be only temporary as sentiment among Swiss companies remains quite positive.
Moreover, private consumption, which had been dampened by weaker net migration and subdued consumer confidence, may also be regaining some strength. In November, retail sales volumes were up year-on-year (by 0.7%) for the first time since July 2015.
Our forecasts for 2017 and 2018 remain unchanged and we continue to expect 1.8% annual GDP growth in both years.
However, while the overall economy seems to be back on track again two years after the abandonment of the exchange rate limit, a renewed appreciation of the Swiss Franc remains a key risk factor. The strengthening against the euro in the last couple of months to 1.07 CHF/euro has been largely offset by the CHF falling against a stronger US dollar, thereby reducing the need for action from the SNB. But the pressure for a stronger CHF could quickly become more widespread if various major global risks materialised.
Table Of Contents
Country Economic Forecasts > Switzerland Switzerlandand#58;
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
Government budget (% of GDP)
Short-term interest rates (%)
Long-term interest rates (%)
Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
Exchange rate (vs. euro)
Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
Contributions to GDP growth
Monthly industrial output
Business and consumer confidence
Prices and earnings
Consumption and investment
Government balance and debt
GDP and industrial production
Monetary policy and bond yields
Background Information on the country
One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
Key Facts on the country
Map of the country
Key political facts
Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
Structure of GDP by output - latest year
Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
Corruption perceptions index- latest year
Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year