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Despite the recent successes of the Syrian regime and the diplomatic effort from the US and Russia, there remains little prospect of a resolution to the Syrian conflict and ultimately peace. In fact, the conflict has become even more complicated with shifting alliances and the entry of Turkey into the war driven by concern about Kurdish power and IS terrorism.
The humanitarian disaster continues to worsen, with the death toll now estimated at above 400,000, 4.7m people fleeing to neighbouring countries, some 7.6m people internally displaced due to fighting and massive shortages of food, water and electricity. Economic data is understandably scarce, but oil production is estimated at just 15k b/d or 4% of its 2010 peak. We continue to expect no economic recovery over the forecast horizon, with GDP falling a further 10% this year and taking perhaps 30 years to return to pre-war levels.
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