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Country Economic Forecasts > Taiwan

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 13 pages

The Taiwanese economy continued to benefit at the end of 2016 from a strong trade performance. In Q4 exports in US$ terms were up 11% year-on-year, the fastest pace in five years. While the recent strength in exports is mainly driven by electronics exports to the rest of the region, Q4 saw a gradual improvement in sales from other sectors, such as chemicals and machinery, indicating that the rebound in trade may be becoming more broad-based.

Although buoyant foreign demand is bolstering industry and business investment, consumption is still proving slow to pick up as wage growth and consumer confidence have remained sluggish in recent months. But downward pressures should hopefully fade as solid external demand feeds through to the wider economy in 2017.

Overall, we estimate that GDP grew by 1.4% in 2016 as a whole and expect a modest pick-up to 1.6% growth in 2017, reflecting our caution about the pace of recovery in global trade.


Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Taiwan
Taiwanand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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