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Country Economic Forecasts > Thailand

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 11 pages

Limited by subdued external demand and modest private spending and investment trends, Thai economic activity remains generally sluggish, with growth focused on only a few sectors. Exports of goods in US$ terms contracted by a larger amount in July than in Q2, while manufacturing output recorded a large fall and private investment showed no growth, continuing its moderate overall trend since 2013. At the same time, the boosts to Thailand's GDP from strong tourism and public spending, although still substantial, may now be starting to fade.

Looking forward, it seems very unlikely that the economy will be able to escape a prolonged period of patchy, modest growth of around 3%, held back by low levels of confidence in the country's political and economic outlook and a dull external backdrop.

Furthermore, concerns about the health of the king have risen in recent weeks. The palace released a statement at the beginning of the month that he had received treatment for a severe blood infection. His condition has since improved but, as he is 88 and has experienced many bouts of illness in recent years, worries remain high about the state of his health. His death could plunge Thailand into political and economic turmoil if the royal succession was to get caught up in the country's deep political divide.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Thailand

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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