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Country Economic Forecasts > Thailand

  • December 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 11 pages

The latest indicators suggest that economic growth slowed further in the final quarter of 2016, after moderating to 3.2% on the year in Q3. Exports fell in both nominal and real terms in October, while manufacturing conditions continued to be weak in November with the Nikkei manufacturing PMI below the expansion-contraction threshold of 50 for the seventh consecutive month. In addition, subdued consumer sentiment after the King's death and the higher cost of essentials probably weighed on private spending in Q4.

Looking into 2017, the growth outlook remains subdued and we expect the economy to record average growth of just above 3%. Tourism (after a temporary soft patch in Q4 2016) and public sector spending are likely to be the key pillars of the economy, while private spending and investment are likely to remain lacklustre, reflecting the troubled political background. Furthermore, while we expect some recovery in external demand, the pace of this pick-up is likely to be modest and susceptible to setbacks.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Thailand

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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