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Country Economic Forecasts > Tunisia

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

The public sector wage bill, which accounts for 54% of total spending, is among the highest in the world in relative terms and is expected to be on the rise again this year. As such, fiscal consolidation is not expected to have any immediate effect, and the fiscal deficit will widen further to 4.8% of GDP this year. And the current account deficit is seen rising to over 9% of GDP as tourism revenues remain under severe pressure.

GDP growth is now forecast at just 1.2% in 2016 as a result of weak tourism, labour unrest, regional risks, structurally high unemployment and low investor confidence. A modest recovery in growth is expected from 2017 onwards assuming there is a recovery in the services and industrial sectors, but external debt is forecast to rise amid the wide current account deficit, low foreign investment and limited foreign exchange reserves.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Tunisia

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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