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Country Economic Forecasts > Tunisia

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

We have kept our GDP growth forecast for 2016 at 1.2% due to continued contraction in the agricultural sector and weak industrial activity. And growth is forecast to remain lacklustre at about 2% in 2017, weighed down by fiscal pressures, weak domestic demand and an adverse external environment. Inflation is expected to average 3.7% this year before rising to 4.7% in 2017 reflecting a depreciating dinar and rising public sector wages. But this is still low in an African context and will provide some support for consumption.

The external deficit remains high, rising to over 9% of GDP this year due to low tourism revenues, weak capital inflows and a decline in merchandise exports. The fiscal deficit has also risen (to over 5% of GDP) as a result of an increase in recurrent spending. We expect wages to rise further in 2017, albeit at a significantly slower rate than this year, meaning that there is less room for an increase in capital expenditure.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Tunisia
Tunisiaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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