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Country Economic Forecasts > Tunisia

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 7 pages

Slow progress on Tunisia's economic reform agenda, weakness in the tourism sector and a challenging external environment mean a subdued forecast for short-term GDP growth, now seen at only 1.9% this year after just 1.2% in 2016. Medium-term prospects are slightly better as key sectors, including tourism, regain momentum, but are nevertheless still weighed down by structural challenges.

The narrowing of the current account deficit and expected rebound in foreign investment will facilitate a rise in foreign reserves this year. However, this is in conjunction with a rise in external debt. On the budget front, Tunisia has been struggling with consolidation of the fiscal deficit due to protest action against a number of austerity measures. We expect wages to rise further in 2017, meaning that there is less room for any increase in capital spending. The fiscal deficit is forecast to remain wide at 5.7% of GDP in 2017, but should then narrow over the medium term as the wage bill is contained.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Tunisia
Tunisiaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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