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Country Economic Forecasts > Ukraine

  • February 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 7 pages

GDP growth of 1.5% in 2016 confirms the economy's turnaround, as fixed investment and private consumption bounced back despite the breakdown of trade with Russia and the ongoing separatist conflict in the east. Growth is set to reach 2.5% this year as renewed IMF support enables the fiscal deficit to stay around 3% of GDP, with public investment stepped up as subsidies are withdrawn. Medium-term growth will be capped at around 3% by infrastructure weakness and internal displacement, but will be underpinned by new trade opportunities and multilateral investment support. The return to export growth in 2016 was weakened by rising implementation risk around the EU trade pact and recession and sanctions blocking traditional Russian markets.

Risks to the recovery remain high, with the new US administration signalling a re-set of relations with Russia that could erode its commitment to Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery of lost territory, and the risk of EU also easing sanctions on Russia, threatening further conflict escalation. Unresolved conflict in breakaway regions is an obstacle to east-west trade revival, and foreign debt repayment from 2019 is at risk from weak GDP growth.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Ukraine

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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