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Country Economic Forecasts > Ukraine

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

After a stronger Q2, when year-on-year GDP growth reached 1.3% helped by rising exports, and agreement in September on another US$1bn of IMF funding, the economy remains on track for growth of about 1% in 2016 overall, ending three years of recession.

Although the reshuffled coalition is relaxing the 2016 budget and will allow higher deficits in 2017-18, this will mean higher infrastructure spending without breaching IMF-imposed ceilings. And the government remains committed to structural reforms ahead of the 2019 elections. In addition, expansion of new industries in the west is now offsetting disruption of production and exports by the ongoing conflict in the east.

Return to growth in Russia will help lift the pace of expansion to 2.5% in 2017, but medium-term growth will be constrained to around 3% by continuing political risks.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Ukraine
Ukraineand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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