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Country Economic Forecasts > United States

  • March 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 13 pages

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The US economy is facing a very peculiar environment where stock valuations and confidence are inflated by promised fiscal stimulus and deregulation, but private sector outlays remain cautious. Solid fundamentals continue to support consumer spending but inflation is taking a bigger bite out of real disposable income. Trade and investment are rebounding but only gradually. We forecast real GDP growth of around 2.1% this year, owing to a weak first quarter, and 2.6% in 2018 supported by fiscal stimulus. We now expect the Fed to raises interest rates three times in 2017, with the first hike occurring at the March FOMC meeting.

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