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Country Economic Forecasts > United States

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

Recent data point to GDP growth rebounding to around 2.5% in Q3, but then moderating to below 2% in Q4. Overall, the consumer maintains solid momentum supported by reasonable income growth while business investment remains constrained by a flurry of headwinds and the absence of 'animal spirits'.

In the near-to-medium term, we see employment growth slowing in a maturing labor market but wage growth picking up the income growth baton. Since the trade-off will not be one-for-one, we expect income and consumer spending growth to moderate gradually towards 2%. Business investment meanwhile will remain weak constrained by soft final demand globally and domestically. 

We expect real GDP growth of 1.5% in 2016 (down from 1.6% previously) and foresee a modest rebound to 2.0% in 2017 (from 2.3% previously). While this is faster than our estimate of long-run potential output growth (about 1.6%), we expect the Fed will proceed very gradually in tightening monetary policy amid a slowly closing output gap, with only one rate hike pencilled in for 2017 (mid-year), down from two previously.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > United States

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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