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Country Economic Forecasts > Venezuela

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 8 pages

We expect that GDP will fall by 8.6% this year and by a further 1.2% in 2017. Moreover, the outlook for next year is likely to worsen, as a solution to the current power struggle between the government and the opposition is not yet in sight.

The National Electoral Council (CNE) has set 26, 27 and 28 October as the official dates for the collection of the 4 million signatures (20% of the electorate) required to activate a referendum for recalling President Maduro. This will allow the CNE to delay the referendum until after 10 January, beyond which date if a referendum takes place and Maduro is recalled, then the Vice President would take his place and 'Chavismo' would remain in power.

In addition, the CNE has set conditions that will make it very difficult for the opposition to achieve the 20% requirement to trigger the referendum. The opposition will have to collect the signatures of 20% of all registered voters in each state (rather than nationally) in just 21 hours, using only a fraction of the voting centres available, and just four fingerprint scanners per centre.

PDVSA has improved its recent swap offering of bonds maturing next year for a bond amortizing in four equal annual tranches beginning in Q4 2017 and collateralized by 50.1% of Citgo shares, with the swap capped to a maximum of US$5,235m.

The improved swap offering saw PDVSA and Venezuelan bonds rally to a two-year high. The new improved deal should be sufficiently attractive to achieve at least a two-thirds participation rate in the swap, which would spare the country US$4.3bn in amortizations and interest payments over the next 12 months and probably be enough to avoid default.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Venezuela

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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