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Country Economic Forecasts > Vietnam

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

A
recovery to 6.4% GDP growth in Q3 confirms that H1 drought damage is now
receding, but full-year expansion will stay below the official target at 6%
before recovering to 6.7% in 2017-18. Rising inflation (4% in October) and
better enforcement of debt limits will compel stricter budgeting in the next
five years, but this ensures continued expansion of private investment, and
leaves scope for higher infrastructure spending as tax receipts improve. The
rise in FDI despite GDP slowdown in 2016 underlines Vietnam's attractiveness as
an export base, and is helping to upgrade domestic supply chains.

But
there are risks from rising inflation, which will peak at around 5% soon but is
likely to be higher than previously expected at around 4% a year in 2017-19 due
to rising public service prices as the budget tightens, recovery in energy
costs and increased wage pressures. And the election result in the US may
now delay or scale back the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which had promised
improved market access for Vietnam. But in the medium term, any distancing from the US is
likely to be offset by deepening regional trade links and opportunities to
expand industrial exports to China, already the largest agricultural market.





 

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Vietnam
Vietnamand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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