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Nigeria Power Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 65 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: An economic crisis, unorthodox monetary policy and concerns about a devaluation of the nairawill deter foreign investment in Nigeria's power sector. This will stall government efforts to plug the powergeneration deficit with private capital, with investors likely to delay market entry until Nigeria comes toterms with a painful economic adjustment to lower oil prices.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- We believe foreign companies are likely to delay or cancel entering the power market entry amidconcerns about opaque power sector policies, a devaluation of the naira and capital controls, whiledomestic investors will struggle to access funding amid liquidity constraints in the banking sector.

- Further, there is still little concrete power sector policy beyond the points outlined in the APC manifesto.Policy appears to be premised on privatising and securing the financial viability of the sector as a way ofimproving power supply. However, Babatunde Fashola, the minister of power, works and housing is yetto outline his energy policy in full.

- As a consequence of these dynamics we maintain our conservative forecasts for growth in electricitygeneration and capacity. We forecast electricity generation will grow by an annual average of 4.3%between 2017-2025, following a jump in growth as National Integrated Power Plan (NIPP) projects arebrought online in 2016. Gas-fired generation will remain the largest component of the power mix, butgrowth will be constrained by gas shortages.

Table Of Contents

Nigeria Power Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Nigeria Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Nigeria 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Nigeria 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Nigeria Power Forecast Scenario 11
Table: APC: Manifesto Needs To Be Fleshed Out 12
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 18
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast 21
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 23
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 24
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 26
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 27
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019) 27
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025) 28
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019) 29
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025) 29
Electricity Consumption 30
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019) 30
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025) 31
Transmission and Distribution 31
Transmission and Distribution 33
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019) 33
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025) 33
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 34
SSA Power Risk/Reward Index 34
Table: SSA Power RRI (Scores Out Of 100) 40
Nigeria Power Risk/Reward Index 41
Rewards 41
Risks 41
Market Overview 43
Key Policies/Market Structure 43
Regulation and Competition 43
Table: PHCN Successor Companies 43
Pricing 45
Nigeria Power Projects Database 48
Table: Nigeria - Top 10 Projects By Capacity Type (MW) 50
Competitive Landscape 52
Regional Overview 53
Glossary 59
Table: Glossary Of Terms 59
Methodology 60
Methodology And Sources 60
Industry Forecast Methodology 60
Sources 63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 63
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 65

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