Future Telecom

  • December 2013
  • -
  • -
  • 45 pages

The Future of telecom
Scenarios and trends for 2025
This report analyses the evolution and key trends of the telecom service sector and sets out IDATE's vision of the market in 2025.
It analyses the new markets and the major shifts in demand and supply within the telecom industry and then provides readers with a long-term vision for the role of telcos. It containsquantitative market data – USA, Japan, France, Italy, Spain, UK - for 2013 and gives youdetailed forward scenarios of the years to come: : « Doldrums », « Evolution » and « Renaissance ».


mobile payment, NFC, Near Field Communication, contactless mobile technology, Cardlet, Trusted Service Manager, TSM, Secure Element, secure applications, non-secure applications, mobile wallet, electronic wallet, transport, ticketing, mobile NFC, tag NFC, mobile NFC payment, mobile NFC micro-payment, mobile service provider, payment systems, mobile operator, mobile device manufacturer, mobile devices, smartphones, automation, NFC chips, SIM cards, microSD cards, virtual credit, virtual debit card, contactless cards

Table Of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Methodology

3. Market trends and consumption patterns
3.1. Trend No. 1: A grim macroeconomic situation hurting a mature telecom sector
3.2. Trend No. 2: Structural drop in the value of basic services
3.3. Trend No. 3: The low-cost quest heading in all directions
3.4. Trend No. 4: Exploding data traffic
3.5. Trend No. 5: The need for personalised content
3.6. Trend No. 6: Multi-device plans to access an increasingly large selection of content… free content
3.7. Summary: How will we be consuming telecoms in the medium term?

4. Industry and supply-side trends
4.1. Trend No. 1: An increasingly open ecosystem
4.2. Trend No. 2: A regulatory framework that’s here to stay
4.3. Trend No. 3: Access network: a money-maker once again
4.4. Trend No. 4: Vertical markets
4.5. Trend No. 5: Platforms (cloud, CDN…)

5. What role will telcos play in 2025?
5.1. How will the industry be organised in 2025?
5.2. What are telcos’ options?
5.2.1. The integrated telco model
An integrated connection-services plan
…with control over the device…
… and over customer data
5.2.2. Netco and servco alternatives
Netco: a shift to the wholesale model
Servco: moving in on OTT players’ territory

6. Market scenarios for 2025
6.1. The scenarios: key parmaters
6.2. The market in 2025: three scenarios
6.3. The scenarios in figures
6.3.1. Figures for the "Evolution" scenario
6.3.2. The alternative scenarios
6.4. Detailed figures for the “business as usual” scenario
6.4.1. World market
6.4.2. The United States
6.4.3. The EU-5
6.4.4. Japan


Table 1 : Communication services offered by various aggregators
Table 2 : Telecommunications and OTT services market
Table 3 : How key variables will evolve under each scenario


Figure 1 : Growth of telecom services revenue in the EU-5, 2008-2025
Figure 2 : Quantified forecasting model 2013-2015
Figure 3 : Main telecom market and usage trends
Figure 4 : Annual growth in per capita spending on telecoms
Figure 5 : Average price of a mobile calling minute in France, 2010-2013
Figure 6 : Global mobile traffic (voice and data), 2010-2018
Figure 7 : Long-term telecom consumption trends
Figure 8 : Main industry and supply-side trends
Figure 9 : Wholesale tariffs vs. market competition
Figure 10 : From product to consumer-centric organisation and vertical solutions
Figure 11 : Biggest challenges for operators
Figure 12 : Market players recast
Figure 13 : Telcos in a strong position to analyse their customers’ data streams
Figure 14 : Telcos’ positioning options
Figure 15 : Growth of current GDP, 2008-2018
Figure 16 : The three market scenarios in brief
Figure 17 : Growth of telecom services revenue worldwide
Figure 18 : Growth of telecom services revenue in the EU-5
Figure 19 : Growth of telecom services revenue in the US
Figure 20 : Comparison of the three scenarios in the EU-5
Figure 21 : Breakdown of voice/non-voice services in the EU-5 in 2025, for each scenario

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