Strategic Outlook of Select Sub-Saharan Commercial Vehicle Market

  • December 2013
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 173 pages

Africa to Offer Level Playing Opportunity for Global Industry Participants

The Sub-Saharan African commercial vehicles study gives a strategic overview of the commercial vehicles market in twelve Sub-Saharan African countries. Due to the limited availability of raw materials and vehicle components, the commercial vehicles market has experienced years of decline in vehicle production. The emergence of low-cost vehicles from Asian manufacturers has exacerbated this situation. Currently, most commercial vehicles are imported either from Europe or Asia. China, Japan, and South Korea are playing leading roles in exporting low-cost commercial vehicles to Africa. Most African governments have responded by providing tax incentives to encourage the local assembly of commercial vehicles in their countries.

Executive Summary—Key Findings for Truck Market

Between 2012 and 2020 the Sub-Saharan African’s truck market is anticipated to grow from to units. It is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) ofX% during this period.
1. The overall truck market is expected to achieve high growth due to sustained economic growth which is expected to average X% between 2012 and 2020.
2. Significant investment in infrastructure projects across the entire Sub-Saharan African region is expected to be the major driver of growth. However, the unavailability of raw materials in local markets and the high costs of producing vehicles locally are expected to continue undermining market development.
3. Currently, there is limited production of local vehicles across the region. Most available vehicles are either low-cost vehicles from Asia or second-hand models from Europe.
4. South Africa remains the single largest market of commercial vehicles across the region with a market share of approximately X%.
5. Due to the urgent need to resuscitate their automotive sectors, most governments are imposing restrictions on the importation of vehicles older than five years.
6. Light-duty truck sales are expected to continue dominating the market between 2012 and 2020.

Executive Summary—Key Findings for Bus Market

Between 2012 and 2020 the Sub-Saharan African bus market is anticipated to grow fromX to X units. It is expected to achieve a CAGR of X% during this period.
1. The overall bus market is expected to achieve a high growth due to high urbanisation growth and the need to provide efficient transport systems in most urban areas.
2. South Africa is expected to be the major supplier of heavy-duty buses in Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2012, South Africa contributed X% to total bus sales in the region.
3. Currently, a limited number of OEMs are locally manufacturing buses in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, increased government support will be critical in ensuring increased local production of buses in this region.
4. The bus rapid transit (BRT) system has been the cornerstone of ensuring the efficient development of transport systems across the continent. This is expected to continue driving demand for both medium- and heavy-duty buses until 2020.
5. Government incentives, such as tax exemptions, on bus components are expected to be critical in driving growth in this market.
6. Skills development in the automotive sector will need to be prioritised in order to increase production in the bus sector.

Executive Summary—Market Overview

Most commercial vehicles are currently imported from Europe and Asian markets.
• The Sub-Saharan African commercial vehicles market is mostly characterised by light-duty (LD), medium-duty (MD), and heavy-duty (HD) trucks and buses.
• Since the 1980s, most Sub-Saharan African countries have experienced a steady decline in the number of vehicles assembled locally.
• This has mainly been due to the limited availability of raw materials and vehicle components. Furthermore, the influx of low-cost vehicles has reduced the price competitiveness of locally assembled vehicles.
• Hence, most countries currently import commercial vehicles from Europe and Asia.
• However, in order to stimulate the local assembly of commercial vehicles, some governments are shifting towards providing tax incentives to local assemblers.
• These include import duty exemptions on vehicle components that are used for local vehicle production.

Executive Summary—Outlook of Commercial Vehicles Value Chain

Major OEMs
• Nissan
• Mazda
• Ford
• Chevrolet Utility
• Toyota
• Isuzu
• MAN
• Iveco
• Mercedes-Benz
• Hino
• Fuso
• Freightliner
• Scania
• TATA
• Volvo
• VDL
• Renault
• Foton
• Mack
• DongFeng
• PACCAR
• Navistar
• Hyundai

Assemblers/ Dealers
• Toyota
• Nissan
• General Motors
• Ford
• Mercedes-Benz
• Kenya Vehicle Manufacturers (KVM)
• INNOSON Vehicle Manufacturing (IVM)

Key Questions this Study Will Answer

How are the macro-economic trends impacting the sales and production of commercial vehicles?
How is the commercial vehicles (CV) market structured?
Who are the market leaders and what are their market shares?
What are the technology trends?
Is there potential for growth within the market?

Table Of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
2. Research Scope, Objectives, Methodology, and Background
3. Definitions and Segmentation
4. Market Overview
5. Mega Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa
6. Total Commercial Vehicles Market
• External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints
• Forecast and Trends
7. Market Overview by Country
• South Africa’s Commercial Vehicles Market
• Zambia’s Commercial Vehicles Market
• Zimbabwe’s Commercial Vehicles Market
• Botswana’s Commercial Vehicles Market
• Namibia’s Commercial Vehicles Market
• Angola’s Commercial Vehicles Market
• Mozambique’s Commercial Vehicles Market
• Kenya’s Commercial Vehicles Market
• Tanzania’s Commercial Vehicles Market
• Uganda’s Commercial Vehicles Market
• Nigeria’s Commercial Vehicles Market
• Ghana’s Commercial Vehicles Market
8. Conclusions and Future Outlook

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