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Brazil Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 116 pages

BMI View: We believe that grains production growth over the next five years will slow relative to the preceding five. In particular, corn production will lose acreage to soybean and see negative growth in 2015/16. Soybean production will outpace that of corn, as lower production costs for soybean relative to corn will make the commodity more attractive to grow. However, we see limited growth out to 2018/19 given the scarcity of area available for expansion as well as high import costs for fertilisers. We also see strong growth in the livestock and dairy sectors, as these will continue to benefit from Russia's ban on imports of US products, which has been extended to August 2016. We hold a more positive view on the sugar industry now than we have held in the past, due to reforms in the ethanol sector and the significant depreciation in the real over the past several months. Real weakness will be a net positive for the country's agricultural sector.

Key Forecasts

-Soybean production growth 2014/15 to 2018/19: 1.6% to 96.0mn tonnes. We see limited growth out to 2018/19 given the scarcity of area available for expansion, as well as high import costs for fertilisers.
-Poultry consumption growth to 2019: 15.0% to 10.7mn tonnes. A growing middle class and the general preference for poultry over all other meat groups because of its health properties and lower prices will encourage demand growth.
-Beef production growth to 2018/19: 9.8% to 10.4mn tonnes. Reduced cattle availability will weigh on beef production until 2016/17, as increasing cattle supply will take time (a period of 30 months is required from birth to slaughter).

Table Of Contents

Brazil Agribusiness Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Sugar Outlook 12
Table: Brazil - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2019) 15
Grains Outlook 16
Table: Brazil - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Risks To Outlook 17
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2019) 20
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2019) 20
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2019) 20
Cocoa Outlook 21
Table: Brazil - Cocoa Production and Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Risks To Outlook 21
Table: Cocoa Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2019) 25
Dairy Outlook 26
Table: Brazil - Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 26
Table: Risks To Outlook 27
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2019) 29
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2019) 29
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2019) 29
Coffee Outlook 30
Table: Brazil - Coffee Production and Consumption Outlook 30
Table: Risks To Outlook 30
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2019) 33
Livestock Outlook 34
Table: Brazil - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 34
Table: Risks To Outlook 35
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2019) 38
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2019) 38
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2019) 38
Cotton Outlook 39
Table: Brazil - Cotton Production and Consumption Outlook 39
Table: Risks To Outlook 39
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2019) 43
Soybean Outlook 44
Table: Brazil - Soybean Production and Consumption Outlook 44
Table: Risks To Outlook 44
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2019) 47
Commodities Price Analysis 48
Global Commodities Strategy 48
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 48
Upstream Analysis 50
Americas Machinery Outlook 50
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 53
Americas GM Outlook 57
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 64
Downstream Analysis 71
Food 71
Structural Trends 71
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2019) 72
Processed Food 72
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 73
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Brazil 2014-2019) 73
Table: Jams and Jellies Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Brazil 2014-2019) 74
Table: Frozen Fruit and Vegetables Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 74
Dairy 74
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 76
Confectionery 77
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Brazil 2012-2019) 78
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 80
Regional Overview 81
Competitive Landscape 87
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 87
Company Profile 88
JBS 88
Table: JBS Financial Results 99
São Martinho 100
Table: São Martinho Financial Results 109
Demographic Forecast 110
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Brazil 1990-2025) 111
Table: Key Population Ratios (Brazil 1990-2025) 111
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Brazil 1990-2025) 112
Table: Population By Age Group (Brazil 1990-2025) 112
Table: Population By Age Group % (Brazil 1990-2025) 113
Methodology 115
Industry Forecast Methodology 115
Sector-Specific Methodology 116

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