>BMI View: Multinational drugmakers will face significant challenges in maintaining double-digit revenue growth rates in China. Reforms to the healthcare sector will continue over the coming quarters as authorities seek to expand healthcare access while containing costs in a macro environment that has seen economic growth slow. Provincial nuances will become more pertinent as the economic trajectories of each diverge and bidding processes differ. Collectively, this demands new approaches by multinational drugmakers to the China pharmaceutical market, integrating the macro-economic risk factors with a province level approach.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: CNY688bn (USD109bn) in 2015 to CNY766bn (USD115bn) by 2016; +11.5% in local currency terms and +5.4% in USD terms.
- Healthcare: CNY3,953bn (USD629bn) in 2015 to CNY4,424bn (USD665bn) in 2015; +11.9% in local currency and +5.8% in USD terms. In Q117, China is amongst the most attractive countries according to our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index. The country scores 62.6 out of 100 and is ranked sixth amongst 19 other Asia Pacific countries. Key to China's strong score is its high market expenditure, high sector value growth and policy continuity. The only limiting factors come from the country's business transparency and limited legal diligence.
Table Of Contents
China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2017 BMI Industry View 7 Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Forecasts (China 2014-2020) 7 SWOT 9 Industry Forecast 11 Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 11 Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020) 14 Healthcare Market Forecast 15 Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020) 18 Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020) 19 Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020) 20 Prescription Drug Market Forecast 21 Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020) 22 Patented Drug Market Forecast 23 Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020) 24 Generic Drug Market Forecast 25 Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020) 26 OTC Market Forecast 27 Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (China 2012-2020) 28 Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 29 Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2020) 31 Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (China 2014-2020) 31 Industry Risk/Reward Index 32 Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index - Q1 2017 32 China Risk/Reward Index 38 Rewards 38 Risks 38 Regulatory Review 40 Regulatory Regime 40 Table: Important China GMP Deadlines 40 Intellectual Property Issues 42 Table: PhRMA's Special 301 submission, China, 2014-16 43 Pricing Regime 46 Reimbursement Regime 48 China - 13th Five-Year Plan To Reinforce Existing Trends 52 Market Overview 56 Healthcare Sector 56 Table: Healthcare Resources (China 2010-2015) 59 Table: Healthcare Personnel (China 2010-2015) 59 Table: Healthcare Activity (China 2010-2015) 60 Research and Development 64 Table: Selected List Of MNC With RandD Bases In China 65 Table: Selected List Of Collaboration In RandD Operations In China 68 Clinical Trials 69 Epidemiology 70 Table: Estimated Number Of New Cases Of Cancer In China 73 Competitive Landscape 74 Research-Based Industry 74 Table: Companies Represented by RDPAC 74 Table: Multinational Market Activity 75 Generic Drugmakers 77 Pharmaceutical Distribution 77 Company Profile 79 AstraZeneca 79 Bayer 84 China Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group 88 Eli Lilly 90 GlaxoSmithKline 94 North China Pharmaceutical Corporation 99 Novartis 102 Merck and Co 106 Merck KGaA 109 Pfizer 112 Roche 116 Sanofi 120 Shanghai Pharmaceutical 124 Sinopharm 127 13th Five Year Plan 130 13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points 130 Summary Of Contents 130 Chapter 1: Overview 131 Table: Targets 131 Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development 132 Chapter 3: Economic Institutions 133 Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector 134 Chapter 5: Industries 135 Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy 136 Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network 136 Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation 137 Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development 138 Chapter 10: Environmental Protection 139 Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up 139 Others: 139 Demographic Forecast 141 Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 142 Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) 142 Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) 143 Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 143 Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) 144 Glossary 146 Methodology 148 Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 148 Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 148 Notes On Methodology 149 Risk/Reward Index Methodology 150 Index Overview 151 Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 151 Indicator Weightings 152