MarketVIEW - Inactivated polio virus vaccines

  • November 2013
  • -
  • VacZine Analytics Group Of Assay Advantage Ltd

Poliovirus a member of the Picornaviridae family has the potential to cause irreversible paralysis in children < 5yrs, with 5 to 10% mortality. Fortunately, the number of polio cases has decreased 99% since 1988, as a result of vaccination (WHO figures). Now only 3 countries (Afghanistan, Nigeria and Pakistan) remain polio-endemic in 2013, although polio free countries remain at risk of importation of wild poliovirus from these countries (Note: outbreaks in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya).

Much of the success in eradicating polio has been due to the launch of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), launched in 1988 and coordinated by national governments and supranational partners such as the WHO, Rotary International, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), UNICEF and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Now the GPEI, GAVI and WHO are facilitating a switch from trivalent (Sabin) oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV) to a bivalent form (bOPV) and beyond that, the introduction of inactivated polio vaccines (IPVs) into global national immunization programs (NIPs).

This MarketVIEW product is a comprehensive commercial opportunity assessment detailing the potential market for IPV vaccines (stand-alone and DTP-IPV combinations) to 2030 across GAVI, Non-GAVI, India, China, Indonesia, Brazil, Existing IPV, Mixed OPV-IPV, OPV, (High-income and UMI) public markets. Three forecast scenarios are included BASE, FRACTIONAL and LOW where differing dose levels of IPV are explored. The report is written from the perspective of IPV producers who are faced with the pending decision(s) of supranational stakeholders whether to continue polio erradication with a "5 plus 1" strategy or hexavalent DTwP-Hep B-Hib-IPV vaccine. Domestic vaccine manufacturer (DVM) capabilities are discussed in terms of potential partnerships, technical issues and alliance activity to date. A case study of J&J/Crucell's PER.C6 IPV is included with revenue projections per market.


Table Of Contents

Contents - Summary presentation (MS PowerPoint based)

Author’s note
Executive Summary
Inactivated Polio Vaccines (IPV): global volume (doses 000s) to 2030
Inactivated Polio Vaccines (IPV): global value ($ 000s) to 2030
Inactivated Polio Vaccines (IPV): GAVI volume to 2030
Inactivated Polio Vaccines (IPV): GAVI value ($ 000s) to 2030
Inactivated Polio Vaccines (IPV): volume by market type, 2020
JandJ Crucell’s PER.C6-IPV: predicted value by market type, 2020
JandJ Crucell’s PER.C6-IPV: assumptions applied
Objectives of analysis
Methodology: major milestones and events
Methodology: country groupings
Methodology: scenario definitions
Methodology: assumptions and uncertainties
Polio epidemiology
Polio epidemiology: confirmed polio cases, 1996-2013
Polio epidemiology: Global wt polio cases, January-September 2013
Polio epidemiology: (VDPV) cases, March-September 2013
Polio vaccines: background to OPV
Polio vaccines: background to IPV
Polio vaccines: comparing OPV to IPV
IPV Polio vaccine manufacturers
Polio vaccine manufacturers: Sanofi Pasteur and GlaxoSmithKline
Polio vaccines: OPV production, prequalification
IPV Polio vaccine manufacturers: summary table
Poliovirus immunization schedules
Poliovirus immunization schedules: IPV vs OPV
Poliovirus immunization schedules: mixed schedules
Poliovirus immunization schedules: Country NIPs by polio vaccine type
GPEI Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan
The Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan: timeline
Accessing Affordable IPV
Affordable IPV: Serum Institute of India reduces IPV price
Affordable IPV: comparing options
GPEI Strategic Plan budget
GPEI plan budget: by category, 2013-2018
IPV dosing in low and high risk countries
IPV dosing: VDPV cases by poliovirus type, 2010-Februrary 2013
Ongoing trials with IPV: summary table
Fractional-IPV versus full-IPV: review of studies
Ongoing trials with IPV
Fractional-IPV line-extension
Alternate cell lines
Alternate cell lines: PER.C6-IPV compared to Salk-IPV20
Sabin-IPV: other points to note
Estimated IPV demand: WHO
Introducing IPV into schedules: 2015 to 2019
Introducing IPV into schedules: 2020
WHO vaccines prequalification priority list 2013-14
Domestic vaccine manufacturer (DVM) capabilities
Introducing IPV into schedules: 2020 - strategies
The hexavalent IPV option: background
The Pentavalent platform for IPV: influence of GAVI
Pentavalent: Summary visual roadmap - GAVI
Hexavalent IPV vaccines: current status
Current and potential future hexavalent products
Developing hexavalent products: technical issues
Developing hexavalent products: issues with dosing
Domestic vaccine manufacturer (DVM) capabilities: DTP
Domestic vaccine manufacturers: Crucell partnership options
DVM capabilities: target options for IPV producers
IPV standalone (5+1) or hexavalent combination?
IPV standalone (5+1) or hexavalent combination: case for
IPV standalone (5+1) or hexavalent combination: case against
Hexavalent demand and supply
GAVI countries
About VacZine Analytics

PAGES: 91 MS PowerPoint slides, fully referenced/sourced. Available in .pdf form

Contents - Vaccine demand model(s) (MS Excel-based) - 1 model

PER.C6-IPV analysis
Value summary
Volume summary
Country groups
Existing IPV
OPV only (High-income and UMI)
OPV only (non-GAVI)
OPV (GAVI-high risk)
OPV (GAVI-low risk)
Source material
Birth cohorts
Country database
NIPs (IPV standalone)
NIPs (IPV combi)
NIPs (non-IPV combi)
DTP NIP analysis
WHO PQ vaccines
Polio cases
Pol3 coverage
World bank
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