The fast-growing market for electric vehicles (EVs), which includes hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery electric vehicles, has become a small but important part of the global automotive industry. Governments worldwide are keen to see increasing penetrations of EVs due to the environmental, economic, and energy security benefits engendered by these vehicles. As such, government incentives to spur growth in EV development have been fundamental to growing plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) penetration within the overall light duty (LD) vehicle market. Meanwhile, demand is increasing among fleet operators and consumers alike.

Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) are widely available in North America, Western and Eastern Europe, and Asia Pacific, but limited elsewhere. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and battery electric vehicle (BEV) models are increasing in number and will be less limited by the end of 2014 or mid-2015 in most regions. Growth in HEVs and PEVs (PHEVs and BEVs combined) will stem from increasing vehicle availability, decreasing HEV and PHEV prices, rising fuel prices, and an improving global LD vehicle market. Navigant Research forecasts that Japan and the United States will be the largest markets for HEVs, with sales reaching just over 1.0 million and 1.1 million in 2022, respectively. The United States will remain the largest market for PEVs throughout the forecast period, netting more than 467,000 sales in 2022. A significant majority of the PEV sales will be PHEVs.

This Navigant Research report provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for the overall LD vehicle market and LD HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs. The report includes comprehensive data for vehicle sales and vehicles in use (parc) for the global LD vehicle market, as well as the three EV segments. Also provided are the underlying forecast assumptions for the consumer and fleet markets. Global forecasts for annual LD vehicle sales and vehicle parcs, segmented by world region, key country, and drivetrain, extend through 2022.

Key Questions Addressed:

• How will the growth rates of light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs vary by region and country through 2022?
• How many light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs will be on the roads through 2022?
• What are the key factors driving growth in the light duty EV market?
• What will be the penetration of HEVs and PEVs within the total light duty vehicle market?
• How will HEV, PHEV, and BEV sales compare to sales of other alternative drivetrains through 2022?
• Which HEV, PHEV, and BEV models are expected to be launched between 2013 and 2015?
• How many HEVs and PEVs will be sold to fleet customers?

Who needs this report?

• Automotive OEMs
• EV component manufacturers and suppliers
• EV charging equipment manufacturers
• Utilities
• Energy service companies
• Government agencies
• Industry associations
• Investor community

Table Of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Scope
1.3 Market Forecasts

2. Data Assumptions
2.1 Background
2.2 Scope and Definition
2.3 Vehicle Availability
2.4 Forecast Assumptions
2.5 Government Incentives
2.6 Vehicle Pricing
2.7 Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations
2.8 Fuel Prices

3. Market Forecasts
3.1 Light Duty Vehicles
3.2 Electric Vehicles
3.2.1 Hybrid Electric Vehicles
3.2.2 Plug-In Electric Vehicles
3.3 Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List

5. Table of Contents

6. Table of Charts and Figures

7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes



List of Charts and Figures

• Annual Light Duty Electric Vehicle Sales by Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Annual Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Annual Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Annual Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Light Duty HEV Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-202
• Light Duty BEV Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Fleet/Commercial Percentage of HEV/PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022



List of Tables

• Incremental Cost for EV Drivetrains, Select Regions: 2013
• Planned HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, North America: 2013-2015
• Planned HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, Europe: 2013-2015
• Planned HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, Asia Pacific: 2013-2015
• Gross Domestic Product (Purchasing Power Parity) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Light Duty HEV, PHEV, and BEV Incentives by Country: 2013
• Average Gasoline Price by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Average Diesel Price by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Average Spot Price of Crude Oil, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Annual Light Duty Vehicle Fleet/Commercial Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Light Duty Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Cumulative Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Drivetrain and Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Annual Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Growth Rate of Annual Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2022
• HEV Share of Total Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Light Duty HEV Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• HEV Share of Light Duty Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Annual Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Growth Rate of Annual Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2022
• PHEV Share of Total Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Light Duty PHEV Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• PHEV Share of Light Duty Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Annual Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Growth Rate of Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2022
• BEV Share of Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Light Duty BEV Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• BEV Share of Light Duty Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Annual Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Growth Rate of Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2022
• PEV Share of Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Light Duty PEV Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Light Duty PEV Share of Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Annual Light Duty HEV Fleet/Commercial Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Annual Light Duty PHEV Fleet/Commercial Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Annual Light Duty BEV Fleet/Commercial Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Fleet/Commercial Percentage of Light Duty HEV/PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022

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