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Analysis of the US Retinal Therapeutics Market

  • December 2013
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 96 pages

Summary

Table of Contents

Improvements in Administration and Efficacy Drive Growth

Since the introduction of Lucentis in 2006, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) antagonists have become the clear choice in treatment for age related macular degeneration, diabetic macular edema, and retinal vein occlusion due to their high efficacy and safety. This research service evaluates the US market for the pharmaceutical management of AMD, DME, and RVO from 2009 to 2017, with 2012 as the base year. Segmentation by disorder is provided. Included are products on the market, products in development, and patient and revenue forecasts. Market challenges, drivers, and restraints are identified and assessed.

Methodology

•The information contained in this research service was derived from a variety of relevant primary and secondary sources.
•Secondary data sources include company publications (annual reports, US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, investor presentations, earnings transcripts, and press releases); US government public sources (clinicaltrials.gov, FDA.gov, Orange Book); pharmaceutical industry databases; and published articles in scientific and medical journals.
•Revenue forecasting is performed using a robust, data-driven, bottom-up, patient-based approach. Marketed drugs and potential new entrants in Phase 3 of development and beyond are individually forecast, and aggregate figures are provided.
•Revenue from off-label usage is not included, but is accounted for in forecast models.

Key Findings

Current Market Landscape
•Since the introduction of Lucentis in 2006, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) antagonists have become the clear choice in treatment for age-related macular degeneration (AMD), diabetic macular edema (DME), and retinal vein occlusion (RVO) due to their high efficacy and safety.
•By 2017, Genentech and Regeneron are expected to split the AMD, DME, and RVO segments with their VEGF inhibitors Lucentis and Eylea, respectively.
- In 2017, Lucentis and Eylea are each estimated to produce roughly $Xbillion in revenue.
- Eylea’s favorable bi-monthly dosing has enabled Regeneron to be a viable competitor to Genentech’s Lucentis. In 2014, Eylea’s label will expand to include DME.
•Eylea and Lucentis are comparably priced; however, Avastin is available through compounding pharmacies at an immense discount, which significantly disrupts the branded AMD, DME, and RVO market. X to X% of the AMD, DME, and RVO segments are estimated to be off-label Avastin usage.
•Although new VEGF treatments are highly efficacious, they require intravitreal injections which is an invasive procedure. Thus, dosing frequency is a key determinant of market uptake.
•The AMD, DME, and RVO segments are set for continued growth due to an aging US population, and the DME segment in particular due to an increasing prevalence of diabetes.

Future Competitors
•There are more than 15 compounds in Phase 2 development and beyond.
•If approved, Allergan will have the first once-every-3-months VEGF inhibitor with AGN-150998, expected to launch in 2018 to 2019.
- If Phase 3 data shows comparable efficacy and safety to current VEGF inhibitors, Allergan has the potential to gain X% or more of the market due to its less frequent dosing.
•Ophthotec’s platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) inhibitor Fovista has the potential to become the first add-on therapy to VEGF inhibitors.
- This product has significant market potential due to a complementary rather than competitive add-on therapy strategy.
•New treatments that can be administered orally or topical drops would revolutionize treatment; however, it appears unlikely that any current pipeline medications will have comparable safety and efficacy profiles to current VEGF treatments.

Scope and Segmentation

Geographic Coverage: US
Study Period: 2009–2017
Base Year: 2012
Forecast Period: 2013–2017
Monetary Unit: US Dollars

•This research service evaluates the United States market for pharmaceutical treatments for the following retinal diseases: AMD, DME, and RVO.
•Units are defined as patients. Treated patient numbers, when estimated, are derived from annual sales revenue and annual cost of therapy.
•The price is the annual cost of therapy, and the average annual cost of therapy is based on the average wholesale price (AWP) per drug, as reported in Thomson Reuters Red Book. Hospital or clinic-associated expenses are not included in the cost of therapy.
•Indication-specific annual revenue, as reported, is used when available. Otherwise, estimates are used.

Key Questions This Study Will Answer

Is the market growing, how long will it continue to grow, and at what rate?
Are the existing competitors structured correctly to meet customer needs?
What pipeline candidates have the greatest potential? When are they expected to reach market?
Which treatments are set to dominate the market? How much market share for each competitor?
What is the peak sales potential for AMD, DME, and RVO market?
What the strengths and weaknesses of current and future therapies?

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