HIV -- KOL Insight and Consensus Outlook Modules

  • February 2014
  • -
  • Firstword Pharma
  • -
  • 183 pages

What do frontline clinicians really think about current HIV treatment pathways and what are the most pressing unmet needs that industry can respond to?

What’s driving long term growth in HIV?

The market for HIV therapies has been growing fast — a 5 year CAGR (2007-2012) of 12.0% — but sustaining growth will be a challenge. The HIV sector is mature with many tried and tested treatment options, so what has underpinned growth to date and how can companies drive market expansion in the future?

The patient population is key

Current HIV therapies are effective in suppressing HIV and are successfully increasing patients' life expectancy. However, they are not curative and must be taken for the lifetime of the patient. This means the market for HIV therapies will be sustained from the long-term maintenance of the current patient base whose numbers will swell as new cases are diagnosed.

Good times, bad times?

Valued at US$16 billion in 2012, and with a 5-year CAGR (2007-2012) of 12.0 percent, the HIV sector is dominated by seven blockbuster drugs: Gilead's Atripla and Truvada; Bristol Myers-Squibb's Reyataz; Merck & Co.'s Isentress; Janssen Therapeutics' Prezista; ViiV Healthcare's Epzicom/Kivexa; and AbbVie's Kaletra. With few payer restrictions on prescribing HIV therapies, no prospect of a cure or vaccine in the near future and limited uptake of generics to date, the sector is forecast to maintain stable returns until the end of the decade. However, driving high growth will be a challenge, and new products must show significant clinical and patient benefits if they are to succeed in a market already provided with established therapy options.

Game changers in the pipeline?

Medical adherence, improved efficacy and reducing toxicity are major challenges and there are a number of promising candidates in late trials — but how will they fare? Will ViiV Healthcare price Trii, its first single-tablet, complete regimen, competitively? Tobira Therapeutics cenicriviroc has novel anti-inflammatory effects, but what are the regulatory hurdles it will have to overcome? And Gilead's tenofovir alafenamide could address safety concerns associated with tenofovir; can it limit competition from generic alternatives?

Meeting the challenge of unmet need

Many of the challenges faced by clinicians are not related to efficacy, but include poor adherence to treatment, often exacerbated by societal and mental health issues, the stigma associated with diagnostic testing and low levels of early diagnosis. There are, however, opportunities for industry to improve patient outcomes. For example:

Poor adherence to prescribing programmes is a major issue in the management of HIV. Long acting injectable formulations and single dose combination therapies may help tackle this problem and in turn reduce transmission rates.
Under diagnosis or late diagnosis often leads to patients presenting with advanced infection. This is a notoriously difficult area to influence, but could home self diagnosis be part of the answer? Only OraQuick's In-Home HIV test is approved in the US and there are none in Europe.
As first-line anti-retroviral regimens have similar efficacy, the choice of therapies is determined by the type and likelihood of long term adverse effects such a renal function impairment and cardiovascular disease. New complete combination regimens may address some of these safety concerns, but products with reduced side-effect are both a development challenge and market opportunity.
A complete ongoing analysis of current trends, forecasts and landscape modifiers

Harnessing the real world insights from leading US/European KOLs and research analysts, this study critically examines the HIV sector to expose the real potential. If you need instant access to an accurate, unbiased, qualitative review of the latest treatment trends along with a five-year quantitative HIV market forecast and insights as to the how HIV treatment will develop, look no further than FirstWord's Therapy Trends: HIV. This insightful FirstWord research is provided in two comprehensive modules:

The KOL Insight: HIV module provides a complete review underpinned by exclusive in-depth interviews with leading KOLs from the US and Europe
The Consensus Outlook: HIV data analysis module provides annual historical and forecast product-level sales data based on leading equity analysts' projections. Key findings are given in a written analysis to support the visual data analyses provided in charts and tables
KOL Insight

KOL Insight Report

A qualitative analysis of the current and predicted treatment trends, clinical products and commercial drivers and resistors in the global HIV market, informed by in-depth expert views of the leading clinicians
Compare the market’s key players, marketed products, late-stage pipeline drugs, current and future product positioning, in the context of HIV market trends
Event-driven Updates
Benefit from the latest KOL views about significant future event-driven changes in HIV treatment trends
Consensus Outlook

Consensus Report

An in-depth 5-year Consensus Outlook report of predicted quantitative changes in key HIV market forecast parameters drawn from 13 leading analyst and brokerage companies
Chart HIV market size, product sales, market share by company, competitive status and detailed forecasts
Interactive Analytics File
Use the interactive Excel market analytics module of detailed market and product sales data from 2007 to 2017 to drill down and assess key company, market and product trends

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