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  4. > Argentina Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

Argentina Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 75 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We believe that, with export quotas for corn and wheat having been removed by the newgovernment, soybeans will lose acreage to both crops and yields will decrease as farmers swap soybeans forwheat in early plantings. What is more, soybean hoarding will decrease due to a lower export tax and thepeso devaluation. As such, we hold a bearish view on soybean production in Argentina through to the endof our forecast period in 2018/19. Meanwhile, we expect moderate output growth for corn over our forecastperiod to 2018/19, as we expect corn prices to increase from current levels, which will incentiviseproduction. Over the same period we are also predicting wheat production to trend higher, although thiswill be largely due to base effects.

Key Forecasts

- Sugar production growth to 2018/19: 43.3% to 2.6mn tonnes. The sharp decline in 2013/14 was dueto a dry summer followed by severe frosts that impacted key sugar-growing regions and, as a result, thesector will enjoy growth coming from a low base.
- Pork production growth to 2018/19: 26.1% to 557,300 tonnes. Over the long term, government effortsto reduce the proportion of beef in the local diet, in order to free up more for export, will lead to anincrease in pork production.

Table Of Contents

Argentina Agribusiness Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Sugar Outlook 11
Table: Sugar - Production and Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Argentina 2011-2019) 14
Livestock Outlook 14
Table: Argentina - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Argentina 2011-2019) 16
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Argentina 2011-2019) 16
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Argentina 2011-2019) 17
Soybean Outlook 17
Table: Soybean - Production and Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 18
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (Argentina 2011-2019) 21
Dairy Outlook 22
Table: Argentina - Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 22
Table: Risks To Outlook 23
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Argentina 2011-2019) 25
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Argentina 2011-2019) 25
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Argentina 2011-2019) 25
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption (Argentina 2011-2019) 26
Grains Outlook 27
Table: Argentina Grains - Production and Consumption Outlook 27
Table: Risks To Outlook 28
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Argentina 2011-2019) 29
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Argentina 2011-2019) 30
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Argentina 2011-2019) 30
Commodities Price Analysis 31
Global Commodities Strategy 31
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 31
Upstream Analysis 33
Americas GM Outlook 33
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 41
Americas Machinery Outlook 46
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 49
Downstream Analysis 53
Food 53
Latest Updates 53
Structural Trends 53
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019) 54
Table: Canned Food Value Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019) 54
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019) 56
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019) 60
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019) 61
Regional Overview 62
Competitive Landscape 68
Table: Key Agribusiness Companies 68
Demographic Forecast 69
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Argentina 1990-2025) 70
Table: Key Population Ratios (Argentina 1990-2025) 70
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Argentina 1990-2025) 71
Table: Population By Age Group (Argentina 1990-2025) 71
Table: Population By Age Group % (Argentina 1990-2025) 72
Methodology 74
Industry Forecast Methodology 74
Sector-Specific Methodology 75

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