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  5. > Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 76 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Recent developments in the country's economic and business environments add further weightto our positive view on Vietnam's agribusiness sector. The industry holds strong growth opportunities interms of production, exports and retail sales, particularly with regard to the rice, coffee, livestock and dairysectors. Moreover, economic and financial integration in South East Asia will benefit Vietnam's exports ofrice, dairy and coffee. However, Vietnam is facing growing competition in its key markets. The fulfilment ofits promising potential will only be achieved if the country steps up its competitiveness and improves bothproduct quality and supply chain efficiency. Vietnam will have to significantly ramp up investments on cropproductivity in order to not be left behind and, if it does, it will be able to produce more value-added cropsand maintain its status as an export spearhead.

Key Forecasts

- Rice consumption growth to 2019: 12.0% to 24.0mn tonnes. Rice remains the major food staple inVietnam, and we do not see this changing over our forecast period. However, rising interest in otherfoods such as wheat-based goods - supported by growing affluence - will restrict demand for rice, andover the forecast period we expect production growth to significantly outpace that of consumption.

- Corn production growth to 2018/19: 32.3% to 6.8mn tonnes. Although acreage is likely to remainstagnant or diminish, current yield immaturity means significant gains are still available via this avenue,especially as robust local corn prices provide incentives to farmers. Domestic consumption will beanother important driver.

Table Of Contents

Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Table: Vietnam - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: Vietnam - Risks To Grains Outlook 13
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Vietnam 2011-2019) 16
Rice Outlook 17
Table: Vietnam - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Vietnam - Risks To Rice Outlook 18
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Vietnam 2011-2019) 20
Dairy Outlook 21
Table: Vietnam - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 22
Table: Vietnam - Risks To Dairy Outlook 22
Table: Vietnam - Planned Investment In Milk Production Capacity 24
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (Vietnam 2011-2019) 27
Livestock Outlook 28
Table: Vietnam - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 28
Table: Vietnam - Risks To Livestock Outlook 29
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Vietnam 2011-2019) 32
Coffee Outlook 33
Table: Vietnam - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook 34
Table: Vietnam - Risks To Coffee Outlook 34
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Vietnam 2011-2019) 39
Commodities Price Analysis 40
Global Commodities Strategy 40
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 40
Upstream Analysis 42
Asia GM Outlook 42
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 45
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 46
Asia Machinery Outlook 51
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 54
Downstream Analysis 57
Food 57
Food Consumption 57
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Vietnam 2012-2019) 58
Canned Food 58
Confectionery 59
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Vietnam 2012-2019) 60
Pasta 61
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019) 61
Dairy 62
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019) 62
Regional Overview 63
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops 67
Competitive Landscape 69
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies (USDmn) 69
Demographic Forecast 70
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Vietnam 1990-2025) 71
Table: Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025) 71
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Vietnam 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025) 73
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Sector-Specific Methodology 76

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