Table of Contents
Positive Trends for Electronic Design and Test in Automotive and Transportation Applications
This deliverable provides an overview of the key trends related to electronics in the automotive and transportation industry and the resulting opportunities for vendors of general-purpose test equipment, testing services, and design solutions. An overview of the key Mega Trends influencing the industry is provided, and key design and testing challenges, including complex automotive networks, electric vehicles and hybrids, communications, software codes and process optimization, are discussed.
The automotive and transportation industry is witnessing a revival and undergoing rapid transformation. Severely impacted by Mega Trends related to connectivity and convergence as well as the smart movement, this industry offers tremendous opportunities to vendors of general-purpose test equipment and design software solutions as well as testing service providers. It is also an extremely competitive and cost-sensitive industry. Suppliers will have to innovate to capture the potential emerging from the industry.
A term coined by Frost & Sullivan, City as a Customer is a Mega Trend referring to the urbanization and the emergence of mega cities all over the world. The United States is a great illustration of this Mega Trend, with almost % of the country's population living in metropolitan areas and more than % living in the ever-expanding suburbs that enclose cities. Moreover, outer suburbs are the fastest-growing regions in the country. Between 2011 and 2012, principal cities lost around two million people to the suburbs. As a result, suburb-to-suburb and suburb-to-city commuting is significant, with more than % of the people using their own vehicles to drive to work. Such traffic is estimated to account for % of all commutes made by the population. The mega suburbs in the United States create mobility conditions that fundamentally differ from those in an urban context, calling for innovation in the automotive and transportation industry.
Urbanization is a global phenomenon. By 2025, around % of the world's population will live in urban areas, and this will lead to the emergence of a number of mega cities across the world.
By 2025, there will be 35 mega cities, which are cities with a population of more than eight million and a gross domestic product (GDP) of over $ billion, globally. More than % of these cities will be located in the developing world. The world’s largest mega city will be Tokyo, with million people and a GDP over $ trillion. In the United States, mega cities will emerge by 2025 - New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. In addition, there will be a number of emerging mega cities, which are cities with a population of five to eight million. In the United States, these cities will include Dallas, Houston, Miami, Atlanta, Washington, Philadelphia, and Boston.
With every % increase in a country’s urban population, there is a corresponding % gain in per capita economic activity. Mega cities will be responsible for a significant portion of the GDP in their respective countries. In the United States, New York and Los Angeles will be the key states, with an expected GDP of $ and $ trillion, respectively, by 2025.
Hence, in future, the focus will no longer be on selling into countries but into cities. Cities will emerge as customers. From an automotive and transportation perspective, this trend has important implications, including the following:
• The design of cars around cities, not the contrary
• The emergence of new urban technologies, such as traffic jam assistance
• The increase in connectivity with and within vehicles
• The use of multiple modes of transport
Many mega cities will also be smart cities, which are cities that leverage intelligent solutions and technology. Frost & Sullivan expects global cities to be smart cities by 2025, with half of them in North America and Europe. Smart mobility is a key parameter of the smart city concept, with rail systems being part of the equation.
There are various examples of rail projects around the world, including in the United States, China, and Europe. By 2020, many cities in California will be connected by a high-speed rail system that will enable people to commute from San Francisco to Los Angeles in 2 hours and minutes. Further, China is investing $ billion in the Hong-Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou Express Rail Link, which is likely to be completed by 2016. This will help people to travel from Shanghai to Beijing in 8 hours and Hong Kong to Beijing in 10 hours. In Europe, Trans- European Network Transport is expected to connect over billion people.
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