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Global Market Analysis for High-Speed (8/9/10) Transmissions

  • December 2013
  • 245 pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
Report ID: 1939372

Summary

Table of Contents

Fuel Economy Norms and Regional Market Dynamics to Boost Global Volumes to Over 13 million by 2020

Global automotive stakeholders play a strong role in improving fuel efficiency and enhancing performance, which advanced transmission technologies can provide. This research service provides an in-depth analysis of the global market for high-speed (8-, 9- and 10-speed) transmissions, focusing primarily on AT and DCT. It discusses the technology and market drivers/challenges, unit shipment forecasts, market share analysis, competitive landscape, forecasts by OEM/region/vehicle segment, and provides scenario analysis and OEM/supplier profiles and key conclusions up to 2020.

Executive Summary—Key Findings

Global market for high-speed transmissions expected to grow to X– million units by 2020.

Global
• Globally, high-speed transmissions (high-speed stepped automatic transmissions [ATs] and dual-clutch transmissions [DCTs]) are expected to account forX– % of the overall transmissions by 2020 from X– % in 2012. This is likely to account for X– million high-speed transmission vehicles annually in 2020. North America and China are expected to be the most attractive high-speed transmission markets by 2020.
• Globally, 8-speed ATs are expected to dominate the market, with a share of X– % in 2020. The 9-speed ATs are expected to follow, with a close X % share. High-speed DCTs are expected to account for X– % of the high-speed transmission market, accounting for X– million units by 2020.
• Globally, General Motors is expected to lead the market in terms of unit shipments by 2020, followed by Toyota and Ford. These OEMs are expected to account for X– % of the high-speed transmission market by 2020.
• High-speed transmissions are expected to be a key offering by all premium OEMs, including BMW, Daimler, Audi, Lexus, JLR and Volvo. BMW and Daimler are expected to lead, among these OEMs, with a share of X– % in the total high-speed transmission market by 2020.

North America
• North America is expected to be the largest market for high-speed transmissions, accounting for X– million units annually by 2020. By 2020, X– % of the transmission market is expected to be high speed.
• 9-speed ATs are expected to account for most of the market share in North America, at X– % by 2020. This is primarily due to the adoption of 9-speed ATs by high-volume original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for their forward-wheel drive (FWD) vehicle applications. North America is also expected to have the highest volumes for 10-speed AT transmissions globally, due to the expected uptake of these on rear-wheel drive (RWD) vehicles and the pick-up segment such as the F-150 and RAM 1500.
• The ‘Big 3’, namely, General Motors, Ford and Fiat-Chrysler, are expected to lead the market towards 2020, with sales of over 1 million each. These OEMs are expected to account for a combined share of about X% of the high-speed transmission market in North America by 2020.

Europe
• Europe is expected to have a total high-speed market of X– million by 2020. The high-speed DCT segment is expected to be the largest globally, at about X units by 2020. High-speed transmissions are expected to have a penetration of X– % by 2020 in the overall European transmission market.
• By 2020, 8- and 9-speed ATs are expected to be equally paced, although 9-speed ATs are likely to have some advantage, atX– %. This is primarily due to the adoption of high-speed transmission technology by premium OEMs including Daimler, JLR and BMW, which together account for about X% of the 9-speed ATs in Europe.
• Premium OEMs, including BMW, Daimler and Audi, are expected to account for the majority market share by 2020. BMW and Daimler are projected to account for X– %.

Asia
• China is expected to become the second-largest market for high-speed transmissions, and account for about X– million units by 2020, with a penetration of X– % in its overall transmission market by 2020.
• A competitive AT market share in Japan is expected to augment the growth of high-speed transmissions in the market to over X units by 2020, and account for a penetration of X– %.
• The 8-speed ATs are expected to be the dominant high-speed transmission technology by 2020 in China (X– % share in the high-speed transmission market) and Japan (X– %). In China, this is because of the adoption of 8-speeds ATs by premium OEMs, whereas in Japan it is due to Toyota’s dominance and the adoption of the 8-speed FWD and RWD Aisin transmission.
• The positive adoption of DCTs in China is expected to augment the growth of the high-speed DCT segment to about X by 2020.

Supplier Outlook
• Globally, from the perspective of tier-1 suppliers as opposed to in-house manufacturing, ZF and Aisin are expected to lead the market by 2020. Aisin is expected to be the market leader in Japan, whereas ZF will probably lead in all other markets. OverX% market share is expected to be held by these suppliers.
• A number of OEMs, including Hyundai, Daimler, Ford and GM, are focusing on in-house high-speed transmission manufacturing. This is because it is considered a core competence and a key pillar of the engine and overall powertrain strategy.

Key Questions this Study Will Answer

What is the future scope for the high-speed transmission market globally? Which regions will adopt the technology and which will look to other transmissions to meet customer demands? Are high-speed transmissions a growing market?
What will be the most dominant high-speed transmission technology in 2020 and why? Will the 8-, 9- or 10- speeds ATs or high-speed DCTs be more dominant. Why, and what challenges do these technologies face?
Which key OEMs and suppliers are likely to lead? What are the expected advancements in this market? Does it follow a global strategy or a region-specific one? What are the key market forecasts for unit shipment?
What are the key trends that promote the uptake of high-speed transmissions? What are suppliers innovating within the market space? Which of them will lead in each region, and why? What is the industry’s opinion about the cost-benefit analysis and the market view about the limited number of gears in transmissions?
What is the likely technology roadmap towards the medium and long terms for high-speed transmissions? Does the market provide opportunities for OEMs and suppliers to innovate in their quest to reduce emissions, increase fuel economy, and meet market demands? What are the these opportunities?

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