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Brazil Mining Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 68 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Brazil's iron ore sector will drive the country's mining industry growth, supported by lowoperating costs and vast reserves. Meanwhile, consistently weak mineral prices will weigh on productiongrowth in other sectors.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- Iron ore will be Brazil's mining industry's growth bright spot due to the sector's low production costs, anda strong output growth strategy from Brazilian mining giant Vale. We expect Brazil's share of global ironore production to increase from 11.5% in 2016 to 14.5% by 2020, with the sector's output reaching459mnt in 2020 from 359mnt in 2016.

- While Brazil's iron ore production growth will not be significantly affected by the Samarco dam burst inNovember 2015, the country's mining sector will come under tightening environmental regulation.Increased political will to pass the overhaul of Brazil's mining regulatory framework, which has beenstalled in Congress since 2013, will include legislation targeting the regulation of mine tailings dams.

- We have downgraded our bauxite production growth forecast from 3.0% to 1.0% in 2016, due to thecountry's declining aluminium output and weak price environment. Beyond 2016, we expect growth toaccelerate as Norsk Hydro's Paragominas mine continues to ramp up production.

- Major mining and metals producers operating in Brazil will face headwinds from a deepening economicrecession, structurally lower commodity prices, high debt loads and corruption scandals. Firms will targetlowering spending, closing or divesting from high-cost assets and reducing employment. For instance, onFebruary 16, Anglo American announced the details of its large-scale restructuring plan, including theeventual sale of the USD9.0bn Minas Rio iron ore mine in Brazil.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Mining Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Brazil Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2020) 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Bauxite: Aluminium Decline To Weigh On Growth 10
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Brazil 2014-2020) 10
Risks To Outlook 12
Gold: Tepid Growth In Light Of Price Weakness 13
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Brazil 2014-2020) 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Select Greenfield Gold Projects 15
Iron Ore: Low-Cost Producers To Drive Growth 16
Table: Iron Ore Forecast (Brazil 2014-2020) 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Brazil - Major Iron Ore Projects 19
Nickel: Price Weakness To Weigh On Growth 20
Table: Nickel Production (Brazil 2014-2020) 20
Tin: Growth To Underperform 22
Table: Tin Production (Brazil 2014-2020) 23
Indonesian Ban To Boost Brazilian Exports 25
Mining Risk/Reward Index 27
Brazil Risk/Reward Index 27
Rewards 27
Industry Rewards 27
Country Rewards 27
Risks 27
Industry Risks 27
Country Risks 28
Americas - Risk/Reward Divergence To Emerge 28
Key Takeaways 28
Latest Revisions 30
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index 31
Regulatory Development 32
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 32
Commodities Forecast 36
Commodities Outlook 36
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 36
Competitive Landscape 37
Table: Brazil - Largest Mining Companies Financial Data 38
Company Profile 39
Global Company Strategy - Anglo American - Q2 2016 39
Company Strategy 42
Latest Results 44
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data 46
Global Company Strategy - Alcoa - Q2 2016 47
Company Overview 49
Company Strategy 49
Latest Results 51
Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data 52
Company Details 53
Vale - Q2 2016 54
Company Overview 56
Company Strategy 56
Latest Results 58
Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 59
Company Details 59
Regional Overview 60
Methodology 65
Industry Forecast Methodology 65
Sources 66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 68

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