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  5. > Canada Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Canada Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 166 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Our growth outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry remains modest given mountingheadwinds in both the upstream and midstream sectors amid a low oil price environment. The greatestthreats are unfavourable project economics and regulatory headwinds that will hamper the growth of oilsands-driven production, midstream expansions and LNG terminal development. This is exacerbated by thelikely drop in exploratory activity throughout Canadian acreage as companies revise capital expendituresin the coming year.

The latest developments in Canada's oil and gas sector are:

- We are reaffirmed in our negative outlook on long-term crude production growth in Canada following theelection victory for the Liberal Party in October. A low oil price outlook and insufficient pipelinetakeaway capacity will combine with the government's strong environmental mandate to undermineupstream and midstream developments.

- Prime Minister Trudeau and the Albertan government's financial commitments will strengthen supportfor midstream projects in the province to service existing oil sands operations. However, under its newleadership, Alberta will boost its environmental mandate, undermining pre-FID upstream developments.

- The proposed 50,000b/d expansion of Imperial Oil's Cold Lake bitumen project in March represents aunique opportunity for a more financially stable company to explore more efficient production methods.The extended life-time of this brownfield project supports its development but does not indicate a broaderexpansion of Canadian upstream capacity beyond 2017.

- The announced acquisition of Canadian Oil Sands by Suncor in January for USD2.9bn will increaseefficiencies at the company's Syncrude joint venture. Consolidation among larger producers supports ourview that continued financial stress will threaten Canada's competitive landscape in 2016.

Table Of Contents

Canada Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Canada 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Shale Resources-In-Place, Alberta 14
Upstream Projects 16
Table: Canada Key Upstream Projects 16
Upstream Production - Oil 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2014-2019) 30
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2020-2025) 30
Upstream Production - Gas 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2014-2019) 34
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2020-2025) 35
Refining 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Canada 2014-2019) 39
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Canada 2020-2025) 39
Refined Fuels Consumption 40
Latest Trends 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Canada 2014-2019) 42
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2020-2025) 42
Gas Consumption 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends 43
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2014-2019) 45
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2020-2025) 45
Trade - Oil 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends: 46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2014-2020) 50
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025) 50
Latest Updates 50
Structural Trends 50
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019) 52
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025) 52
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 53
Latest Updates 53
Structural Trends 53
Table: Canadian Key LNG Export Projects 56
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019) 57
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025) 58
Industry Risk/Reward Index 59
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Index 59
Table: North America And Western Europe - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 60
Upstream: North America To Maintain Lead 60
Table: North America And Western Europe - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 63
Downstream: US Widens Lead 63
Table: North America And Western Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index 65
Canada - Risk/Reward Index 66
Canada Upstream Index 66
Canada Downstream Index 67
Market Overview 68
Canada Energy Market Overview 68
State Role 69
Licensing And Regulation 71
Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime 75
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 78
Oil Refineries 78
Table: Downstream Projects 78
Service Stations 82
Oil Pipelines 82
LNG Regasification Terminals 88
LNG Liquefaction Terminals 89
Gas Pipelines 96
Gas Service Stations 98
Competitive Landscape 99
Competitive Landscape Summary 99
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector 101
Table: Key Upstream Players 101
Table: Key Downstream Players 102
Company Profile 103
Suncor 103
Shell Canada 109
Encana 116
Other Summaries 121
Regional Overview 145
North America And Western Europe Regional Overview 145
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024 156
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024 157
Glossary 159
Table: Glossary Of Terms 159
Methodology 161
Industry Forecast Methodology 161
Source 163
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 163
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 165
Table: Weighting 166

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