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Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 79 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Czech Republic will remain highly dependent on imported oil and gas, mostly from Russia,as conventional hydrocarbons production potential is limited. However the country will manage to slowlydiversify its gas sources through the STORK II project linking the country to Poland. This will provide itwith access to Polish gas and imported LNG from the ?winouj'cie LNG terminal.

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Czech Republic's oil and gas sector are:

- While the country's shale gas potential could be promising, a moratorium on shale gas exploration andpublic opposition to the practice make exploration unlikely in the near-to-medium term.

- The Czech Republic produces negligible volumes of domestic gas or oil, with limited upside risk tofuture production, meaning the country will remain significantly dependent on Russian hydrocarbonimports within our forecast period.

- The country is a small consumer of refined fuels. We forecast a relatively strong rise in refined fuelsconsumption over the first half of our forecast period, pulled up by the robust growth in vehicle growthand a strong industrial sector.

- The country imports most of its required crude oil from Russia and is a small net importer of refinedproducts. We expect the Czech Republic will continue to be largely dependent on Russian crude imports,while the country will see an increase in refined products net import requirements to answer risingdomestic demand over our forecast period.

- According to an update by Unipetrol in late 2015, current production at the Litvínov refinery continuesrunning at a significantly reduced capacity following an explosion at the neighbouring petrochemicalcomplex in August 2015. A return to full production is unlikely until Q316. This has therefore likelyimpacted H215 refined fuels production and will likely impact 2016 production. We therefore point todownside risk to our 2015 refined fuels production estimate and to our 2016 forecast. Similarly, thisyields upside risk to refined fuel net imports for 2015 and 2016, and downside risks to net crude oilimports on the back of lower crude oil feedthrough.

Table Of Contents

Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Production - Oil 13
Table: Oil Production (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 14
Table: Oil Production (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 14
Upstream Production - Gas 15
Table: Gas Production (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 16
Table: Gas Production (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 16
Refining 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 19
Refined Fuels Consumption 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 21
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 21
Gas Consumption 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Gas Consumption (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 24
Table: Gas Consumption (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 24
Trade - Oil 25
Crude Trade Forecast 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Czech Republic 2014-2020) 27
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 27
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 29
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Gas Net Exports (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 33
Industry Risk Reward Index 34
Central And Eastern Europe - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 34
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Index Averages - High Risk, Low Reward In Central And Eastern Europe 34
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 35
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 36
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index 38
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 39
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index 41
Czech Republic - Risk/Reward Index 42
Czech Upstream Index - Overview 42
Czech Upstream Index - Rewards 42
Czech Upstream Index - Risks 43
Czech Downstream Index - Overview 43
Market Overview 44
Energy Market Overview 44
Regulatory Structure 44
Upstream Fiscal And Licensing Regime 44
Operational Environment 44
Political Environment 45
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 46
Oil Refineries 46
Table: Refineries In Czech Republic 46
Service Stations 46
Oil Storage Facilities 47
Oil Pipeline 47
Gas Storage Facilities 48
Gas Pipelines 49
Competitive Landscape 51
Competitive Landscape Summary 51
Table: Key Players - Czech Oil And Gas Sector 52
Table: Key Upstream Player 52
Table: Key Downstream Players 53
Company Profile 54
Shell Czech Republic 54
Unipetrol 56
Other Summaries 60
Regional Overview 64
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview 64
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling 64
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand 65
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth 66
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger 67
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 68
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 69
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 70
Glossary 72
Table: Glossary Of Terms 72
Methodology 74
Industry Forecast Methodology 74
Source 76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 76
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 78
Table: Weighting 79

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