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  4. > Peru Power Report Q2 2016

Peru Power Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 57 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Strong growth in electricity consumption, government tenders for power generation andtransmissions projects, and robust investor interest in the market continue to support our positive outlookfor the Peruvian power sector. We upgraded our forecasts for Peru's renewables as a result of a successfulenergy tender in February 2016, but future opportunities in the market will be limited by strong growth inhydropower and gas-fired power plants. Delays in project tendering and implementation are themain risks to our upbeat growth forecasts for the Peruvian power sector.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- In February 2016, Osinergmin (the Peruvian public agency responsible for supervising investment inenergy and mining) awarded 20-year power purchase agreements (PPAs) for a total of 1,792.2 gigawatthours (GWh) per year, distributed among 13 renewables projects. Italy's Enel Green Power (EGP)secured contracts for the majority of the energy on offer; EGP obtained PPAs for three renewable energyschemes, involving 126MW of wind power, 180MW of solar photovoltaic power and 20MW ofhydropower.

- We have revised up our renewables power capacity and generation forecasts accordingly, but wemaintain that non-hydropower renewable energy will play only a minor role in the Peruvian electricitymix over the coming decade - due to greater growth in hydropower and natural gas-fired powergeneration. Peru's National Energy Plan does not include provisions for growth in non-hydro renewablesbeyond its target of having 5% of total electricity produced by non-hydro resources by 2018, which willbe reached via the auction. As such - barring the launch of a new renewable energy tender in the future -we expect only limited demand for utility-level renewables in Peru, driven mainly by PPAs with themining sector.

Table Of Contents

Peru Power Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Peru 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Peru Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Peru 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Peru 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Peru Power Forecast Scenario 12
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Table: Peru Key Thermal Power Pipeline 14
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 16
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 18
Table: Peru's Third Renewables Energy Auction - Results 19
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Peru 2014-2019) 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Peru 2020-2025) 23
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Peru 2014-2019) 24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Peru 2020-2025) 25
Electricity Consumption 25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Peru 2014-2019) 26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Peru 2020-2025) 26
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 27
Table: Power Transmission Projects To Be Tendered By Proinversión 28
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Peru 2014-2019) 29
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Peru 2020-2025) 29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Peru 2014-2019) 30
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Peru 2020-2025) 30
Industry Risk/Reward Index 31
Table: Macri's Planned Power Policy Reforms 36
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100 36
Peru Power Risk/Reward Index 37
Rewards 37
Risks 38
Market Overview 39
Key Policies And Market Structure 39
Regulation And Competition 39
Peru Power Projects Database 40
Competitive Landscape 42
Electroperu 42
Endesa/Edegel 42
Duke/Egenor 43
Engie/Enersur 43
EGE San Gaban 43
Perenesa 44
Regional Overview 45
Latin America Power: Key Themes For 2016 45
Glossary 51
Table: Glossary Of Terms 51
Methodology 52
Methodology And Sources 52
Industry Forecast Methodology 52
Sources 55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 55
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 57

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