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United Kingdom Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 199 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: While we see a provisional uptick in oil and gas production in the UK from 2015 onwardsbased on projects in the pipeline, the long-term trend remains one of stagnation given falling volumes frommature fields, a lack of significant new discoveries, falling oil prices and increasing exploration, productionand operational costs in the region at a time when oil companies are seeking Capex cuts. While shale gaspresents upside risk to gas production, this will not come online before the early 2020s at the earliest.Significant fiscal incentives put in place following the ongoing fiscal review provide some upside risk to ouroil and gas production outlook past 2018/2019. However, further reforms and higher sustained oil priceswill be necessary to realise this upside risk.The main trends and developments we highlight in the UK oil and gas sector are:

Exploration

- We retain our bearish oil and gas exploration forecasts this quarter, with 2016 shaping up to bepotentially weaker then the woeful performance of 2015. Low oil prices, maturing fields and highoperating costs make the UK North Sea region a relatively unattractive area for exploration. This willmostly endure over the coming years, despite the recent fiscal and development incentives enacted inearly 2015.

Table Of Contents

United Kingdom Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Lacklustre Exploration To Continue In 2016 11
Exploration-Specific Incentives Required To Boost Exploration 15
Unconventional Gas 16
Upstream Projects 21
Table: United Kingdom - Major Upstream Projects 21
Upstream Production - Oil 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: A Significant Fiscal Upheaval 38
Table: Oil Production (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 43
Table: Oil Production (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 43
Upstream Production - Gas 44
Latest Updates 44
Structural Trends 44
Table: Gas Production (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 49
Table: Gas Production (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 49
Refining 50
Latest Updates 50
Structural Trends 50
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 53
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 54
Refined Fuels Consumption 55
Latest Updates 55
Structural Trends 55
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 57
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 57
Gas Consumption 58
Latest Updates 58
Structural Trends 58
Table: Gas Consumption (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 63
Table: Gas Consumption (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 63
Trade - Oil 64
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 64
Latest Updates 64
Structural Trends 64
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Kingdom 2014-2020) 66
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 67
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts 67
Latest Updates 67
Structural Trends 67
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 69
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 69
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 71
Latest Updates 71
Structural Trends 71
Table: United Kingdom LNG Import Contracts 75
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 76
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 77
Industry Risk Reward Index 78
North America And Western Europe - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 78
Table: North America And Western Europe - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 79
Upstream: North America To Maintain Lead 79
Table: North America And Western Europe - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 82
Downstream: US Widens Lead 82
Table: North America And Western Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index 84
United Kingdom - Risk/Reward Index 85
UK Upstream Index - Overview 85
UK Upstream Index - Rewards 85
UK Upstream Index - Risks 85
UK Downstream Rewards - Overview 85
Market Overview 87
Energy Market Overview 87
Regulatory Structure 87
Licensing Regime 87
Table: UK Licensing Regime 87
Fiscal Regime 88
Table: UK Fiscal Regime As Of 2015 88
Table: A Significant Fiscal Upheaval 90
Licensing Rounds 91
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 92
Oil Refineries 92
Oil Storage Facilities 97
Oil Terminals/Ports 97
Oil Pipelines 97
LNG Terminals 98
Gas Storage Facilities 99
Table: Gas Storage Facilities 100
Gas Pipelines 104
Competitive Landscape 106
Summary 106
Table: Key Players - UK Oil and Gas Sector 109
Table: Key Upstream Players 109
Table: Key Downstream Players 110
Company Profile 111
BP 111
Centrica 117
Chevron 125
ConocoPhillips 130
ExxonMobil 135
Royal Dutch Shell 139
Total 146
Other Summaries 151
Regional Overview 178
North America And Western Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview 178
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024 189
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024 190
Glossary 192
Table: Glossary Of Terms 192
Methodology 194
Industry Forecast Methodology 194
Source 196
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 196
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 198
Table: Weighting 199

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