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Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 83 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Our outlook for Uzbekistan's gas sector remains stable as we expect gas production and exportfigures to remain relatively strong across our forecast period to 2025. However, the country's oil sector willcontinue on a downward slope leaving the country increasingly more dependent on refined fuels importsand subjecting it to potential fuel shortages.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- Uzbekistan's gas exports to Russia could rise in 2016, as Gazprom has recently suspended gas purchasesfrom Turkmenistan, according to Turkmengaz. At the same time, Gazprom said that it would increasepurchases of Uzbek gas. According to recent media reports citing unidentified Gazprom official, Russiacould import around 3.1bcm of gas from Uzbekistan in 2016.

- In late 2015, Uzbekneftegaz postponed the start of the project to build a plant for oil shale processing ata later date, according to news agency Trend sources cited by Bloomberg. Rescheduling is related to therecent decline in oil prices, as well as the fact that the company has not chosen a licensor of shaleprocessing technology.

- In October 2015, Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) finalised fourconsensus documents for technical cooperation related to oil and gas with Uzbekneftegaz. JOGMEC isexpected to study unidentified oil and gas sites in the country in early 2016.

- We expect Uzbekistan's oil and gas reserves to continue declining at a modest, but stable pace across ourreview period. Between 2016 and 2025, we forecast oil reserves to shrink by an average annual rate of2.0% and reach 490mn bbl. In terms of gas, the reserves' decline is expected to average 0.6% per annumover the same period. Nonetheless, with total gas reserves forecast at 1,726bcm in 2025, Uzbekistan willremain a heavyweight in this respect.

Table Of Contents

Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Uzbekistan - Major Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Oil Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 18
Table: Oil Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 18
Upstream Production - Gas 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Gas Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 21
Table: Gas Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 21
Refining 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 24
Refined Fuels Consumption 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 26
Gas Consumption 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Gas Consumption (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 27
Table: Gas Consumption (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 27
Trade - Oil 27
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 29
Fuels Trade Forecasts 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 31
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019) 33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025) 33
Industry Risk Reward Index 34
Central And Eastern Europe - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 34
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Index Averages - High Risk, Low Reward In Central And Eastern Europe 34
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 35
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 36
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index 38
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 39
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index 41
Uzbekistan - Risk/Reward Index 42
Uzbekistan Upstream Index - Rewards 42
Uzbekistan Upstream Index - Risks 42
Uzbekistan Downstream Index - Overview 43
Uzbekistan Downstream Index - Rewards 43
Uzbekistan Downstream Index- Risks 43
Market Overview 44
Uzbekistan Energy Market Overview 44
Regulatory Structure 44
Fiscal Regime 45
Table: Uzbekistan - Upstream Tax Regime 45
Licensing Regime 45
Licensing Rounds 45
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 46
Oil Refineries 46
Table: Refineries In Uzbekistan 46
Oil Shale Plant 48
Oil Pipelines 49
Gas Processing Plants 49
Gas Storage Facilities 51
Gas Pipelines 51
Gas Filling Stations 54
Competitive Landscape 55
Competitive Landscape Summary 55
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies 56
Table: Key Upstream Players 56
Table: Key Downstream Players 56
Company Profile 57
Lukoil 57
Uzbekneftegaz 61
Other Summaries 65
Regional Overview 68
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview 68
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling 68
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand 69
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth 70
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger 71
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 72
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 73
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 74
Glossary 76
Table: Glossary Of Terms 76
Methodology 78
Industry Forecast Methodology 78
Source 80
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 80
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 82
Table: Weighting 83

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