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India Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 95 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We hold a positive view on the outlook for India's agribusiness sector, as the country willremain an agricultural powerhouse and should be able to maintain high levels of self-sufficiency for majorfood crops Production growth of various commodities will be driven by strong government support androbust demand growth for manufactured foodstuff We see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectorssuch as dairy, coffee and livestock However, India will be increasingly vulnerable to exceptional weatherphenomena and serious water shortages Moreover, the country will remain prone to erratic governmentinterventions, which seriously hamper its reputation as an international provider

Key Forecasts

- Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 76% to 312mn tonnes Inefficiencies in the pricing policy willconstrain growth Output expansion will mainly come from the liberalisation of the market, of which thefirst signs can be observed

- Palm oil consumption growth to 2020: 310% to 118mn tonnes Domestic palm oil consumption willbe propelled by strong demand for domestic food use, which makes up about 80% of total domestic palmoil demand- Beef & veal production to 2019/20: 235% to 52mn tonnes Growth will be driven by theimprovements in breeding techniques, and by the robust expansion of the milk sector Export demand forIndian beef will also support investment in the sector

- Agribusiness market value: USD2564bn in 2016 (up from USD2450bn in 2015; forecast to growannually by 59% on average from 2016 to 2020)

- 2016 real GDP growth: 72% (down from 73% expected in 2015; predicted to average 68% from 2016to 2020)

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 48% y-o-y ave (down from 51% expected in 2015; forecast to average44% from 2016 to 2020)

Table Of Contents

India Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: India - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Structural Trends 14
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (India 2013-2020) 17
Rice Outlook 18
Latest Updates 18
Table: India - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook 19
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Structural Trends 20
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (India 2013-2020) 22
Sugar Outlook 23
Latest Updates 23
Table: India - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 24
Table: Risks To Outlook 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (India 2013-2020) 30
Dairy Outlook 31
Latest Updates 31
Table: India - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 32
Table: Risks To Outlook 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (India 2013-2020) 38
Livestock Outlook 39
Latest Updates 39
Table: India - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 40
Table: Risks To Outlook 40
Structural Trends 41
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (India 2013-2020) 46
Palm Oil Outlook 47
Latest Updates 47
Table: India - Palm Oil Production and Consumption Outlook 47
Table: Risks To Outlook 48
Structural Trends 48
Table: Palm Oil and Soybean Production and Consumption (India 2013-2020) 52
Coffee Outlook 53
Latest Updates 53
Table: India - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook 53
Table: Risks To Outlook 54
Structural Trends 54
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (India 2013-2020) 57
Commodity Price Analysis 58
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 58
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 58
Upstream Analysis 60
Asia GM Outlook 60
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 63
Asia Machinery Outlook 65
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 69
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 72
Downstream Analysis 77
Food 77
Latest Updates 77
Structural Trends 78
Table: Food Sales (India 2013-2020) 80
Regional Overview 82
Competitive Landscape 88
Table: India - Major Agribusiness Companies 88
Demographic Forecast 89
Table: Population Headline Indicators (India 1990-2025) 90
Table: Key Population Ratios (India 1990-2025) 90
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (India 1990-2025) 91
Table: Population By Age Group (India 1990-2025) 91
Table: Population By Age Group % (India 1990-2025) 92
Methodology 94
Industry Forecast Methodology 94
Sector-Specific Methodology 95

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