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Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 97 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We hold an optimistic outlook towards Indonesia's agriculture sector and see significant growthopportunities in sub-sectors such as livestock, sugar and palm oil. The country's goal to become selfsufficientin a large number of commodities is overly ambitious in light of the robust outlook for food anddrink consumption. Agricultural production will struggle to expand in the coming years amidst scarceagricultural land, the lack of proper infrastructure and the existence of a large number of low-technology,small-scale farmers. While we believe that Indonesia will be able to reduce its dependence on rice importsin the coming years, sugar, corn and beef self-sufficiency are far-fetched.

BMI Key Forecasts

- Cocoa production growth between 2014/15 and 2019/20: 13.4% to 368,000 tonnes. Productiongrowth will slightly accelerate from 2018 onwards, as private grinders are slowly developingprogrammes to improve plantation management and foster best practices. Until then output will see weakgrowth.

- Palm oil consumption growth between 2015 and 2020: 40.9% to 11.8mn tonnes. Relatively recentrefining and biodiesel policies (B15 mandate) will continue to inflate domestic consumption of palm oilin the coming years.

- Sugar production growth between 2014/15 and 2019/20: 36.4% to 2.9mn tonnes. The strong growthrate is mainly due to base effects as production declined in 2014/15. Moderate expansion in plantationswill help output grow in the coming years, but production growth will be held back by poor canerecovery rates, harvest management and infrastructure issues.

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD140.84bn in 2016 (up from USD129.32bn in 2015;forecast to grow annually by 6.8% on average between 2016 and 2020).

- 2016 real GDP growth: 5.2%, up from 4.8% in 2015 and compared with the 2011-2015 year averagegrowth of 5.2%; forecast to grow annually by 5.9% on average between 2016 and 2020.

- 2016 consumer price index: 4.2%, down from 5.9% in 2015 and compared with the 2011-2015 yearaverage growth of 6.0%; forecast to grow annually by 4.8% on average between 2016 and 2020.

Table Of Contents

Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Rice Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Indonesia - Rice Production and Consumption Outlook 13
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Structural Trends 14
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020) 17
Grains Outlook 18
Latest Updates 18
Table: Indonesia - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 19
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Indonesia, 2012-2020) 23
Sugar Outlook 24
Latest Updates 24
Table: Indonesia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 25
Table: Risks To Outlook 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2012-2020) 28
Livestock Outlook 29
Latest Updates 29
Table: Indonesia - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 30
Table: Risks To Outlook 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020) 34
Coffee Outlook 36
Latest Updates 36
Table: Indonesia - Coffee Production and Consumption Outlook 36
Table: Risks To Outlook 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2012-2020) 41
Cocoa Outlook 42
Latest Updates 42
Table: Indonesia - Cocoa Production and Consumption Outlook 42
Table: Risk To Outlook 43
Structural Trends 43
Table: Cocoa Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2012-2020) 47
Palm Oil Outlook 48
Latest Updates 48
Table: Indonesia - Palm Oil Production and Consumption Outlook 49
Table: Indonesia - Risks To Palm Oil Outlook 49
Structural Trends 50
Table: Indonesia - Minimum Wage ('000 IDR) and Palm Oil Production By Province, 2012-2016 55
Table: Palm Oil Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020) 58
Commodities Price Analysis 59
Global Commodities Strategy 59
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts 59
Upstream Analysis 61
Asia GM Outlook 61
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 64
Asia Machinery Outlook 66
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 70
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 73
Downstream Analysis 78
Food 78
Latest Updates 78
Structural Trends 79
Table: Food Sales (Indonesia 2015-2020) 81
Regional Overview 84
Competitive Landscape 90
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies 90
Demographic Forecast 91
Demographic Outlook 91
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025) 92
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025) 92
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025) 93
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025) 93
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025) 94
Methodology 96
Industry Forecast Methodology 96
Sector-Specific Methodology 97

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