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  5. > Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 59 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We take a cautious view of the prospects for the Pakistani agribusiness sector. There arenumerous challenges facing producers of all commodities covered by this report, chief among them a diresecurity situation, erratic power supply, lack of available finance and vulnerability to extreme weatherevents. Nevertheless, the government has taken some positive steps to improve the availability of higherqualityseeds for rice, wheat and corn, which should raise yields in the medium term. We also note thatthere have been recent positive developments in the country's energy sector that, if sustained, could provebeneficial for cotton and rice producers in particular. Our expectation for rising prices out to 2020 alsogives some grounds for optimism regarding the key export commodities of rice and cotton.

Key BMI Forecasts

- Cotton consumption growth to 2020: -2.1% to 10.4mn 480lb bales. High base effects and a localsupply shock in the early years of our forecast period will see a decrease in cotton demand.

- Wheat production growth to 2019/20: 1.3% to 26.3mn tonnes. Production growth will be modest asfarmers struggle with rising input costs, particularly fertiliser.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 4.3%. Up from 4.2% in 2015. Forecast to grow annually by 4.2% to 2020.

- Consumer price inflation (ave): 4.5% in 2016 (unchanged from 4.5% in 2015).

Table Of Contents

Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Rice Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Pakistan - Rice Production and Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2012-2020) 15
Grains Outlook 16
Latest Updates 16
Table: Pakistan - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Risks To Outlook 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2012-2020) 19
Cotton Outlook 20
Latest Updates 20
Table: Pakistan - Cotton Production and Consumption Outlook 20
Table: Risks To Outlook 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2012-2020) 23
Commodity Price Analysis 24
Global Commodities Strategy 24
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts 24
Upstream Analysis 26
Asia GM Outlook 26
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 29
Asia Machinery Outlook 31
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 35
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 38
Downstream Analysis 43
Food 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends 43
Table: Food Sales (Pakistan 2013-2020) 45
Regional Overview 47
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops 47
Competitive Landscape 52
Table: Main Agricultural Companies 52
Demographic Forecast 53
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Pakistan 1990-2025) 54
Table: Key Population Ratios (Pakistan 1990-2025) 54
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Pakistan 1990-2025) 55
Table: Population By Age Group (Pakistan 1990-2025) 55
Table: Population By Age Group % (Pakistan 1990-2025) 56
Methodology 58
Industry Forecast Methodology 58
Sector-Specific Methodology 59

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