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China Retail Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 82 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain our view that China will remain one of the most attractive retail markets in theAsia Pacific region, despite our forecast that total household spending growth will decelerate from 7.2% in2015 to just 1.2% in 2016. We expect China's manufacturing growth to remain tepid over the comingquarters, as factories continue to destock and lay off workers amid overcapacity. Added to other indicatorsof a continued slowdown in the country's economy, including increasing rates of consumer price inflation,we expect the economic climate to take its toll on the country's retail market over the remainder of the year.

Key Views & Developments

- According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's retail sales grew by 10.1% y-o-y in April 2016,marking a further deceleration compared with 10.5% growth in March. This is contrary to China'sNational Development and Reform Commission forecast in December last year that the retail sales ofconsumer goods would continue rising at 11% in 2016.

- In a bid to clamp down on cross-border commerce and encourage domestic consumption, the Chinesegovernment introduced a new tariff policy in March 2016 that will lead to higher prices for certain product types, which could affect both consumer demand and e-commerce players (see 'Luxury Retail,Cross-Border Specialists Most Exposed Under New E-Commerce Tax', April 14 2016). A number ofconsumer sub-sector imports are likely to be negatively affected, including luxury retail. However,cosmetics could be an area that will benefit from the new structure.

- Japan-based department store and supermarket operator Aeon reported in May 2016 that while turnoverin its Chinese operations increased 1.8% in 2015, net profits fell by a significant 64% y-o-y. Thecompany attributed the fall in profits to the increasingly high cost of opening new stores in China butstated that it would open another three stores in the country by the end of 2016.

- Consumer electronics giant Apple announced that it would be opening two new stores in China in June2016 (one each in Tianjin and Shanghai), bringing its total presence in the country to 40 stores. Thecompany opened 12 stores across China in 2015 and has five stores in total in the capital Beijing.

Table Of Contents

China Retail Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Headline Retail Forecast 11
Table: Total Household Spending (China 2013-2020) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (China 2013-2020) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (China 2013-2020) 15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (China 2013-2020) 18
Retail Sector Forecast 21
Food and Drink 22
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (China 2013-2020) 24
Clothing and Footwear 24
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (China 2013-2020) 26
Household Goods 26
Table: Household Goods Spending (China 2013-2020) 28
Personal Care and Effects 29
Table: Personal Care Spending (China 2013-2020) 29
Household Numbers and Income Forecast 30
Table: Provinces That Could Play Catch Up 31
Table: Household Income Data (China 2013-2020) 32
Table: Labour Market Data (China 2013-2020) 35
Demographic Forecast 36
Table: Total Population (China 2013-2020) 39
Table: Population: Babies (China 2013-2020) 40
Table: Population: Young Children (China 2013-2020) 40
Table: Population: Children (China 2013-2020) 40
Table: Population: Young People (China 2013-2020) 41
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (China 2013-2020) 41
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (China 2013-2020) 42
Table: Population: 21yrs + (China 2013-2020) 42
Table: Population: Young Adults (China 2013-2020) 43
Table: Population: Middle Aged (China 2013-2020) 43
Table: Population: Urban (China 2013-2020) 44
Industry Risk/Reward Index 45
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index 45
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q316 45
China Risk/Reward Index 46
Rewards 46
Risks 47
Market Overview 49
Competitive Landscape 54
Clothing and Footwear 54
Table: Selected Clothing and Footwear Retailers 54
Household Goods 55
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers 55
Electronics 55
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers 55
Department Stores 56
Table: Selected Department Stores 56
E-Commerce 56
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers 56
Pharmacies 57
Table: Selected Pharmacies 57
13th Five-Year Plan 58
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points 58
Summary Of Contents 58
Chapter 1: Overview 59
Table: Targets 59
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development 60
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions 61
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector 62
Chapter 5: Industries 63
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy 64
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network 64
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation 65
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development 66
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection 67
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up 67
Others: 67
Glossary 69
Methodology 76
Industry Forecast Methodology 76
Sources 79
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 79
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 80
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 82

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