Mexico Autos Industry Update Quarter 3 2012

• Publication date: June 2012
• Report size: 67 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates BMI’s optimism towards autos production in Mexico remains high as we enter the second half of 2012, despite a new quota system on auto imports having been implemented by Brazil and the possibilities of similar restrictions being implemented by Argentina. Thanks to strong demand from Mexico's traditional trade partner, the US, Ford Motor recently committed a hefty US Dollar 1.3bn investment to...

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI’s optimism towards autos production in Mexico remains high as we enter the second half of 2012, despite a new quota system on auto imports having been implemented by Brazil and the possibilities of similar restrictions being implemented by Argentina.
Thanks to strong demand from Mexico's traditional trade partner, the US, Ford Motor recently committed a hefty US Dollar 1.3bn investment to Mexico while Germany's Volkswagen (VW) has revealed plans to produce 20% more cars in Mexico compared with last year. VW’s premium car division Audi is also reportedly looking to invest up to US Dollar 2bn in building a new plant for production of its Q5 sports utility vehicle (SUV) in Mexico by 2016, with Honda Motor currently constructing a new plant near Celaya in Central Mexico for production of its subcompact Fit model at a cost of approximately US Dollar 800mn.
All of the above developments not only nullify the possible damage to Mexican production growth prospects arising from its current trade stand-off with Brazil (see Trade section of this report for further information) but also strengthens BMI's expectations of Mexico becoming an outperformer in Latin America in terms of production growth.
On the back of an improved outlook for growth in the US auto segment (where we are now projecting 15% annual growth, which would take US passenger car revenues over 7mn units for the first time since 2007) and considering Mexico's ongoing efforts to diversify its autos production to the Latin American industries, we projection Mexican auto production to grow by an average of 8.6% y-o-y between 2012 and 2016. At this rate, Mexico will not only strengthen its position as a major autos production hub in the region, but also help it to outperform its regional rivals Brazil and Argentina. Looking at trends so far in 2012, a total of 242,317 vehicles were built at production facilities in Mexico in February 2012, a rise of 24.1% y-o-y. Meanwhile, on the revenues side, 74,703 vehicles were sold in the country during the month under consideration, a rise of 11.5% in comparison to February 2011, Bloomberg reports. Exports from Mexico were up 24.9% y-o-y during the same month to 194,640 units.
Indeed, considerable optimism has returned to the vehicle revenues sector, thanks to a 9.8% y-o-y rise to 0.93mn units during 2011, marking an impressive recovery following a modest 8.6% y-o-y rise in 2010. Our Macroeconomic team believes that private consumption is set to post a fairly strong growth of 4.5% in 2012, up from 4.1% recorded in the first three quarters of 2011. More support to this will come from increased credit levels, prompting BMI to projection revenues growth of 8.8% y-o-y during 2012. Beyond 2013, the outlook will depend upon the pace of economic recovery in the US. For now, we maintain that average annual vehicle revenues will grow at just above 8% y-o-y between 2013 and 2016.

Passenger Car Industry in Mexico

Executive Summary . 5
Industry SWOT Analysis 6
Mexico Autos Industry Environment and Risk Analysis 6
Mexico Political Environment and Risk Analysis .. 7
Mexico Economic Environment and Risk Analysis ... 7
Mexico Business Environment SWOT 8
World Autos Update: End Of First Quarter Brings Both Positive And Negative Revisions As Key Trends ... 9
Data : : Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012 9
Regional Overview . 13
Incentives Will Do Little To Reverse Decline In Competitiveness . 13
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings .. 18
Winners And Losers From Shifting Preferences And Sentiments .. 18
Data : : BMI Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos Market In Americas 21
Data : Mexico - Economic Activity .. 24

Market Projection Scenario .. 25
Sales .. 25
Data : Mexico Autos Sales By Segment – Historical Data And Projections, from 2009 to 2016 25
Production 26
Data : Mexico Autos Production By Segment – Historical Data And Projections, from 2009 to 2016 ... 27
Trade . 28
Data : Mexico Autos Trade – Historical Data And Projections, from 2009 to 2016 .. 29
Economic Contribution . 30
Data Mexico Autos Segment – Historical Data And Projections, from 2009 to 2016 ... 30

Competition Overview . 30
Data : Mexico Vehicle Production, from 2010 to 2011 31
Data : Mexico – Vehicle Sales To Dealerships, from 2010 to 2011 . 31
Industry News ... 32
Passenger Cars - Projection & Analysis 34
Data : Mexico Passenger Car Segment – Historical Data And Projections, from 2009 to 2016 34
New Investments ... 34
Jumping On The Electric Car Bandwagon ... 37
Commercial Vehicles – Projection & Analysis .. 38
Data : Mexico Commercial Vehicle Segment – Historical Data And Projections, from 2009 to 2016 .. 38
Light Commercial Vehicles .. 39
Heavy Commercial Vehicles 41
Data : Mexico Top 10 Truck Manufacturers By Production from 2009 to 2010 .. 41
Data : Mexico Top 10 Truck Manufacturers By Sales, from 2009 to 2010 .. 42
Motorcycles 43
Data : Mexico Motorcycle Segment – Historical Data And Projections, from 2009 to 2016 43
Company News 43
Suppliers 45
Segment Trends . 46
New Investments ... 48
Domestic Going International ... 51
Company Monitor .. 53
GM's Investments To Help Correct Regional Deficiencies 53
Company Profiles .. 55
General Motors Firms (GM) .. 55
Volkswagen (VW) . 57
Chrysler ... 58
Toyota Motor ... 59
Country Snapshot: Mexico Demographic Data .. 60

Section I : Population ... 60
Data : Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 61
Data : Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 62

Section II : Education And Healthcare .. 62
Data : Education, from 2002 to 2005 ... 62
Data : Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 62

Section III : Labour Industry And Spending Power .. 63
Data : Employment Indicators, from 2001 to 2006 .. 63
Data : Consumer Expenditure, from 2000 to 2012 (US$) 63
Data : Average Annual Wages, from 2000 to 2012 .. 64
BMI Methodology ... 65
How We Generate Our Market Projections .. 65
Sources 66

Passenger Car in Mexico

Mexico Vehicle Sales, Units

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2000 To 2016
By Business Monitor International
Source: AMDA/BMI

• Industries : Passenger Car
• Countries : Mexico

Mexico Vehicle Sales, Units, Mn

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2000 To 2016
By Business Monitor International
Source: AMDA/BMI

• Industries : Passenger Car
• Countries : Mexico

Mexico Vehicle Sales, Units, % Chg Y-o-y

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2001 To 2016
By Business Monitor International
Source: AMDA/BMI

• Industries : Passenger Car
• Countries : Mexico

Mexico Passenger Car Sales, Units, % Chg Y-o-y

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2001 To 2016
By Business Monitor International
Source: AMIA/BMI

• Industries : Passenger Car
• Countries : Mexico

Mexico Passenger Car Sales, Units, Mn

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2000 To 2016
By Business Monitor International
Source: AMIA/BMI

• Industries : Passenger Car
• Countries : Mexico