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Malaysia Mining Report 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 48 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Malaysia's mining output growth will remain weaker than seen in previous years due tocontinued mineral price weakness. Despite this, the continued presence of major miners across the gold andtin sub-sectors will ensure that output from both segments continues to grow over the forecast period, albeitat a slower rate to that seen in recent years.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- We forecast gold prices to edge higher over the coming months, averaging USD1,275/oz in 2016 andreaching USD1,500/oz by 2020 (see: 'Gold: Upward Revision On Inflation Pressure, May 6).

- We forecast Malaysia's overall gold production to average annual growth of 6.0% during 2016-2020 tototal 184 thousand ounces (koz). While still high by most global comparisons, this represents a markeddip on recent growth levels, which are estimated to have averaged 8.4% a year during 2010-2015.

- We have increased our 2016 tin price forecast to USD16,500/tonne owing to a stabilisation in the Chineseeconomy over Q116 that has boosted all industrial metal prices significantly over January-April. Whilewe expect consolidation over the remainder of 2016, tin prices will continue to recover beyond 2016 asthe global market posts sustained market deficits and inventories dwindle.

- The country's largest producer Malaysia Smelting Corporation's renewed focus on local operationsmeans we expect Malaysia's overall tin output to remain largely unaffected by the current slump in globalprices, especially as we forecast global prices to start to rebound from 2017. Malaysia's refined tin outputwill face an average annual growth of 1.4% during 2016-2020, which is a significant increase from the-2.2% growth from 2011-2015. Nevertheless, Malaysia's global market share will fall modestly from10.2% in 2016 to 9.9% in 2020.

- We expect Malaysia's bauxite mining sector to stagnate over our forecast period to 2020, as it is facinggrowing environmental, land and labour issues and an impending relaxation of Indonesia's bauxite oreexport ban in 2016. Bauxite production will register an average annual growth rate of 4% over2016-2020, which is a significant fall from the 264% recorded over 2011-2015.

Table Of Contents

Malaysia Mining Report 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Malaysia - Mining Industry Value 7
Industry Forecast 10
Gold: Major Producers To Weather The Storm 10
Latest Developments 10
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Malaysia 2014-2020) 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Malaysia - Select Gold Mining Projects 12
Tin: Price Slump Adds To Weak Growth Outlook 14
Latest Developments 14
Table: Malaysia: Tin Production Forecast 14
Table: Global - Top 10 Refined Tin Producers By 2015 Output 17
Malaysia - Stagnant Growth Ahead For Malaysia's Bauxite Sector 18
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 22
Asia Risk/Reward Index 22
Key Takeaways 22
Latest Revisions 23
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index 24
Regulatory Development 25
Key Details 25
State Mineral Enactment A Boon For Miners 26
Table: Breakdown Of Mining Licence 26
Table: Breakdown Of Prospecting and Exploration Licence 26
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 27
Commodities Forecast 30
Commodities Outlook 30
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 30
Competitive Landscape 31
Company Profile 33
Monument Mining 33
Table: Monument Mining - Key Financial Data 34
Malaysia Smelting Corporation Berhad 35
Table: MSC - Key Financial Data 38
Regional Overview 39
Asia Overview 39
Slowing Iron Ore Production 39
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform 40
China and India To Lead In Outbound Investment 41
Indonesian Ban Moderation Ahead 42
Chinese Coal and Steel Sectors To Consolidate Slowly 44
Methodology 45
Industry Forecast Methodology 45
Sources 46
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 47
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 48

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