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Description:

This report analyses the evolution and key trends of the telecom service sector and sets out IDATE's vision of the market in 2025. It analyses the new markets and the major shifts in demand and supply within the telecom industry and then provides readers with a long-term vision for the role of telcos. It contains quantitative market data – USA, Japan, France, Italy, Spain, UK - for 2013 and gives you detailed forward scenarios of the years to come: : « Doldrums », « Evolution » and « Renaissance ».

Region:

world,EU-5,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,Spain,UK,United States

Table Of Contents

Future Telecoms - Market scenarios and trends up to 2025
1. Executive Summary 5
1.1. The European market that will not be back to 2010 levels… in 2025! . 5
1.2. Market and consumption trends 5
1.3. Industry and supply-side trends 6
1.4. Telcos' need for new business models 6
1.5. Three market development scenarios 7
2. Methodology 8
3. Market trends and consumption habits 11
3.1. Trend No. 1: A grim macroeconomic situation hurting a mature telecom sector . 11
3.2. Trend No. 2: Structural drop in the value of basic services . 12
3.3. Trend No. 3: The low-cost quest heading in all directions . 13
3.4. Trend No. 4: The explosion of data traffic 14
3.5. Trend No. 5: The need for personalised content 15
3.6. Trend No. 6: Multi-device plans to access an increasingly large selection of
content… free content that is 16
3.7. Summary: telecom consumption habits in the medium term . 16
4. Industry and supply-side trends 18
4.1. Trend No. 1: An increasingly open ecosystem 18
4.2. Trend No. 2: A regulatory framework that's here to stay . 19
4.3. Trend No. 3: Access network: a money-maker once again . 20
4.4. Trend No. 4: New ways of billing for data 21
4.5. Trend No. 5: Vertical markets 22
4.6. Trend No. 6: The platforms (cloud, CDN…) 23
5. What role will telcos play in 2025? 26
5.1. How will the industry be organized in 2025? 26
5.2. What are telcos' options? 27
6. Market scenarios for 2025 33
6.1. The scenarios' key parameters 33
6.2. Three market scenarios for 2025 33
6.3. The scenarios in figures 35
6.3.1. The Evolution scenario in figures 35
6.3.2. The alternative scenarios in figures 37
7. Detailed figures for the most likely market scenario 39
7.1. World 39
7.2. The United States 39
7.3. Japan 39
7.4. EU-5 40
7.5. Germany 40
7.6. Spain 40
7.7. France 40
7.8. Italy 41
7.9. The UK 41

Tables

Table 1: Communication services offered by various aggregators 13
Table 2: How key variables will evolve under each scenario 35

Figures

Figure 1: Growth of telecom services revenue in the EU-5, 2009-2025 7
Figure 2: Qualified forecast model for 2013-2025 10
Figure 3: Main market and consumption trends 11
Figure 4: Annual growth in per capita spending on telecoms 12
Figure 5: Average price of a mobile calling minute in France, 2010-2013 . 13
Figure 6: Global mobile traffic (voice and data), 2010-2018 15
Figure 7: A typical telecom consumer in 2025 17
Figure 8: Many industry and supply-side trends 18
Figure 9: Telecommunications and OTT services market 19
Figure 10: Wholesale tariffs vs. market competition 20
Figure 11: From a product-centric to a customer-centric and vertical market organisation 22
Figure 12: Biggest challenges for operators 27
Figure 14: Telcos in a good position to analyse customers' data streams . 30
Figure 15: Telcos' positioning options 32
Figure 16: Growth of current GDP, 2008-2018 34
Figure 17: The three market scenarios in brief 35
Figure 18: Growth of telecom revenue worldwide 36
Figure 19: Growth of telecom revenue in the EU-5 36
Figure 20: Growth of telecom revenue in the United States 37
Figure 21: Comparison of the three scenarios in the EU-5 37
Figure 22: Breakdown of voice/non-voice services in the EU-5 in 2025, for each of the scenarios . 38

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