Turkey Commercial Banking Industry Update Quarter 2 2012

  • April 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 79 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking

Business Environment Rating
(CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other markets on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the 'Limits of potential returns' includes industry elements that are specific to the banking market of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the 'Limits of potential returns', the industry elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the 'Risks to realisation of returns' also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI's assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the industry elements of the 'Limits of potential returns' are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the industry elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the 'Limits of potential returns', it usually implies that the banking segment is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the industry elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking segment is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the 'Risks to the realisation of returns' category, the industry elements (i.e. how regulations affect the development of the segment, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody's Investor Services' ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI's long-term risk rating.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary .. 5
Data : Levels (TRYbn) .. 5
Data : Levels (US$bn) .. 5
Data : Levels At January 2012 5
Data : Annual Growth Rate Projections from 2012 to 2016 (%) 5
Data : Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 . 6
Data : Projected Levels (TRYbn), from 2008 to 2016 .. 6
Data : Projected Levels (US$bn), from 2008 to 2016 .. 6
Industry SWOT Analysis .... 7
Turkey Commercial Banking SWOT . 7
Turkey Economic Environment and Risk Analysis .... 7
Turkey Political Environment and Risk Analysis . 8
Turkey Business Environment SWOT 8

Environment Overview Outlook .. 9
Commercial Banking

Business Environment Rating
.. 9
Data : Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings .... 9
Commercial Banking

Business Environment Rating
Methodology ... 10
Data : Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings ... 11
World Commercial Banking Outlook . 12
Eurozone Banking Segment Outlook 16
ECB Move Eases CEE Banking Liquidity Fears, But Risks Remain High .. 16
Europe Banking Segment Projection Overview - Q2 2012 . 24
Data : Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 .... 24
Data : Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings ... 25
Data : Comparison of Loan/Deposit and Loan/Asset and Loan/GDP ratios .... 26
Data : Anticipated Developments in 2012. 27
Data : Comparison of Total Assets and Client Loans and Client Deposits (US$bn) .. 28
Data : Comparison of USD Per Capita Deposits (2011) .... 29
Data : Interbank Rates and Bond Yields ... 30
France Banking Segment Outlook 31
Banks Facing Squeeze From Tighter Policy .. 31
Economic Outlook .. 34
Data : Turkey - Economic Activity, from 2011 to 2016 .. 36

Competition Overview ... 37
Market Structure .... 37
Protagonists . 37
Data : Protagonists In Turkey's Commercial Banking Segment . 37
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe .... 37
List Of Banks 38
Data : Major Deposit Banks In Turkey 38
Company Profiles ... 39
Halkbank . 39
Data : Stock Industry Indicators, from 2006 to 2011 ... 40
Data : Balance Sheet (TRYmn, unless stated), from 2006 to 2010 . 40
Data : Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated), from 2006 to 2010 . 40
Data : Key Ratios (%), from 2006 to 2010 .. 41
Türkiye Is Bankasi . 42
Data : Stock Industry Indicators, from 2006 to 2011 ... 43
Data : Balance Sheet (TRYmn, unless stated). from 2006 to 2010 . 43
Data : Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated), from 2006 to 2010 . 43
Data : Key Ratios (%), from 2006 to 2010 .. 44
Akbank .... 45
Data : Stock Industry Indicators, from 2004 to 2010 ... 46
Data : Balance Sheet (TRYmn, unless stated), from 2004 to 2009 . 46
Data : Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated), from 2004 to 2009 . 46
Data : Key Ratios (%), from 2004 to 2009 .. 47
HSBC Bank A? .. 48
Türkiye Garanti Bankas? .. 49
Türkiye Vak?flar Bankas? . 50
Yap? ve Kredi Bankas? . 51
Finansbank .. 52
DenizBank .... 53
Türk Ekonomi Bankas? 54
Banking Segment Methodology .... 55
Commercial Bank Business Environment Ratings.... 56
Data : Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 57
Data : Weighting Of Indicators.. 58

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