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China Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 128 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: China's long-term crude oil and liquids output will remain on a firm downtrend as low oilprices slowdown exploration and render certain high-cost mature and unconventional plays uneconomic.Outlook is more positive for natural gas, as the government seeks to increase the share of gas in the totalenergy mix. This will prompt domestic firms to ramp-up gas output accordingly, ensuring that growthremains robust over the short-to-medium term. Crude demand will remain strong, driven by continuedstockpiling activity, greater teapot imports and robust domestic demand for gasoline, jet fuel/kerosene andpetrochemical feedstock, which will drive elevated run rates at existing refineries.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

-China's crude oil and liquids output will fall by 12.0% between 2016 and 2025, as sustained oil priceweakness prompt the country's largest oil producers to pare back upstream investment and disengagefrom high-cost production activities.

-An ambitious gas production target is expected to lead a 5.0% increase in gas output over 2016, asdomestic firms ramp-up production activities accordingly.

-China is set to add about 1.6mn b/d of new refining capacity over the next five years, though heavyunderutilisation of existing capacity indicates substantial scope for downsizing.

-Following a substantial cut to wholesale gas prices for non-residential users back in November 2015, thegovernment is mulling another price reform, this time establishing a single wholesale price for all users atnon-residential levels. This will bring domestic prices more in line with market rates, and help tostimulate greater demand from the industrial and power sector consumers.

-Crude imports will remain strong as continued stockpiling activities, refining capacity additions,awarding of import licenses to the teapot refineries and strong domestic demand for gasoline keepChina's appetite for imports elevated.

Table Of Contents

China Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 9
Table: Headline Forecasts (China 2014-2020) 9
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts 9
SWOT 11
Oil and Gas SWOT 11
Industry Forecast 12
China - 13th Five Year Plan: NPC Sets Stage For Deeper Energy Sector Reforms 12
Upstream Exploration 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Key Offshore JVs 16
Table: Recoverable Shale Gas Estimates In China 18
Table: Major IOC Involvement In China's Shale Gas Exploration 19
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2014-2019) 21
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (China 2020-2025) 22
Upstream Projects 23
Table: China - Key Upstream Projects 23
Upstream Production - Oil 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Risks To Outlook 36
Table: Oil Production (China 2014-2019) 37
Table: Oil Production (China 2020-2025) 37
Upstream Production - Gas 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Growth Sources 40
Risks To Outlook 41
Table: Gas Production (China 2014-2019) 41
Table: Gas Production (China 2020-2025) 42
Refining 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends 43
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2014-2019) 45
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (China 2020-2025) 45
Refined Fuels Consumption 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 46
Table: Refined Products Consumption (2014-2019) 49
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (China 2020-2025) 49
Gas Consumption 50
Latest Updates 50
Structural Trends 50
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2014-2019) 52
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2020-2025) 53
Trade - Oil 54
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 54
Latest Updates 54
Structural Trends 54
Crude Oil Trade Partners 56
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2014-2019) 56
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2020-2025) 57
Fuels Trade Forecasts 57
Latest Updates 57
Structural Trends 57
Fuels Trade Partners 59
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2014-2019) 60
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2020-2025) 60
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 61
Latest Updates 61
Structural Trends 61
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2014-2019) 63
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2020-2025) 64
Industry Risk Reward Index 65
Table: Asia's Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 66
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook 67
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 68
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines 69
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 70
China - Risk/Reward Index 71
Upstream Index - Overview 71
Upstream Index - Rewards 71
Upstream Index - Risks 71
Downstream Index - Overview 72
Market Overview 73
China Energy Market Overview 73
Regulatory Structure 73
Fiscal Regime 75
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators 75
Table: Offshore Production Royalty Structure 76
Table: China: Tiered Gas Pricing For Residential Users 77
Table: Shanghai: Tiered Gas Pricing System For Residential Users 77
Licensing Regime 78
Table: 2014 Offshore Blocks Open To Foreign Participation 78
Table: Winners Of Second Shale Gas Licensing Round 79
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 82
Oil Refineries 82
Table: Oil Refineries In China 82
Table: Commercial Crude Oil Storage Terminals In China 85
Crude Oil Pipelines 86
Table: Major Oil Pipelines In China 86
LNG Terminals 87
Table: LNG Terminals In China 87
Gas Storage Terminals 89
Gas Pipelines 89
Table: Major Gas Pipelines in China 89
Coal-To-Gas Plants 90
Table: Planned CTG Plants 90
Coal-To-Gas Pipelines 90
Table: Planned CTG Pipelines 90
Competitive Landscape 91
Competitive Landscape Summary 91
Table: Key Upstream Players 92
Table: Key Downstream Players 92
Company Profile 93
CNOOC 93
Latest Updates 93
Table: Major Producing Areas 95
Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn) 95
Operational Data 95
CNPC 96
Latest Updates 96
Table: Major Upstream Assets 97
Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn) 98
Operational Data 98
Sinopec 99
Latest Updates 99
Table: Major Upstream Assets 100
Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn) 101
Appendix 102
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points 102
Summary Of Contents 102
Chapter 1: Overview 103
Table: Targets 103
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development 104
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions 105
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector 106
Chapter 5: Industries 107
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy 108
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network 108
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation 109
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development 110
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection 111
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up 111
Others: 111
Regional Overview 113
Asia Regional Overview 113
Glossary 121
Table: Glossary Of Terms 121
Methodology 123
Industry Forecast Methodology 123
Source 125
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 125
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 127
Table: Weighting 128

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