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Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 101 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Malaysia's long-term crude oil production will be hit as investment in deepwater explorationand production is curtailed amid low oil prices. The start-up of Petronas' PFLNG1 in H216 initiates astring of projects over 2016-2020 that will boost Malaysia's natural gas production. Aggressive capex cutsby Petronas will result in reduced production post-2020.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

- We forecast Malaysia's crude oil production to remain on a downtrend over 2016 to 2025. Weak oilprices limit the attractiveness of boosting output, as demonstrated by Petronas' large spending cuts forthe coming four years. Furthermore, we do not expect new final investment decisions in deepwater andmarginal projects in the next several years given their high breakeven cost.

- We expect refined fuels production to remain relatively stable over the coming years, rising in 2020 withthe start of the 300,000b/d RAPID refinery.

- Malaysia's oil consumption will grow at a slower rate over the next decade as a result of weakeningeconomic growth and falling energy intensity weighing on demand. The consumption mix will remaindominated by diesel and gasoline over our forecast period.

- With the fall in crude oil production and the coming online of the RAPID oil refinery in 2020, weforecast that Malaysia will become a net crude oil importer by 2020. The country will remain a netimporter of refined products throughout our forecast period.

- The start-up of Petronas' PFLNG1 in H216 initiates a string of projects over 2016-2020 that will boostMalaysia's natural gas production. Aggressive capex cuts by Petronas will result in reduced productionpost-2020.

- New production from a pipeline of gas projects coming online during 2016-2020 will result in stagnatingnet gas exports over the first half of our forecast period. Thereafter net exports will decline sharply on theback of falling domestic production.

Table Of Contents

Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Malaysia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Major Discoveries In Malaysia Since 2011 14
Table: Blocks Offered In The Petronas Licensing Round 2014 16
Upstream Projects 17
Table: Malaysia Major Upstream Projects 17
Upstream Production - Oil 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Risk-Sharing Contracts Awarded 27
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2014-2019) 27
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2020-2025) 28
Upstream Production - Gas 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2014-2019) 32
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2020-2025) 33
Refining 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2014-2019) 36
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2020-2025) 36
Refined Fuels Consumption 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Malaysia 2014-2019) 39
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Malaysia 2020-2025) 39
Gas Consumption 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2014-2019) 42
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2020-2025) 42
Trade - Oil 43
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends 43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2020) 45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025) 46
Fuels Trade Forecasts 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 47
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2019) 48
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025) 48
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 49
Latest Updates 49
Structural Trends 49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2019) 52
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025) 52
Industry Risk Reward Index 53
Asia - Risk/Reward Index 53
Table: Asia's Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 54
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook 55
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 56
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines 57
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 58
Malaysia Risk/Reward Index 59
Upstream Index - Overview 59
Upstream Index - Rewards 59
Upstream Index - Risks 59
Downstream Index - Overview 60
Market Overview 61
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 61
Oil Refineries 61
Table: Refineries In Malaysia 61
Existing Refineries 62
Planned Refineries 63
Proposed Refineries 64
Oil Storage Facilities 64
Table: Oil Storage Facilities In Malaysia 65
Oil Terminals/Ports 67
Oil Pipelines 68
LNG Liquefaction Terminals 69
Table: Malaysia LNG Liquefaction Terminals 69
LNG Import Terminals 70
Table: Malaysia LNG Regasification Facilities 70
Gas Pipelines 71
Malaysia Energy Market Overview 72
Regulatory Structure 72
Fiscal Regime 74
Table: Malaysia - Upstream Tax Regime 74
Licensing Regime 74
Table: Malaysia - Contracts and Licensing Regime 74
Competitive Landscape 76
Company Profile 78
Chevron 78
Latest Updates 78
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 78
ExxonMobil 79
Latest Updates 79
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Malaysia 80
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 80
Petronas 81
Latest Updates 81
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Malaysia 82
Table: Major Downstream Assets In Malaysia 82
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 83
Shell 84
Latest Updates 84
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Malaysia 85
Table: Major Downstream Assets In Malaysia 85
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 85
Regional Overview 86
Asia Regional Overview 86
Glossary 94
Table: Glossary Of Terms 94
Methodology 96
Industry Forecast Methodology 96
Source 98
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 98
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 100
Table: Weighting 101

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