Indonesia Telecommunications Industry Update Quarter 3 2011

$ 1 088 - May 2013 - by Business Monitor International - 115

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BMI View: Indonesia's telecoms market presents good growth opportunities due to its large and youthful
population and extremely low broadband penetration rate. While the mobile industry generates low ARPUs
in light of consumers' preference for prepaid subscriptions, and strong competition among operators and
from alternatives such as fixed-wireless technologies, the long-term outlook is positive as operators are
stepping up efforts to grow the nascent 3G market. Developments in the mobile data sector will also help to
offset disappointing growth in the fixed broadband industry.
Key Data
• Indonesia's top three mobile operators - Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel), Indosat and XL Axiata -
ended 2012 strongly. Consequently, we have upgraded our mobile subscriber estimate and forecasts. We
envisage 361mn subscribers by end-2017, up from 303mn at end-2013.
• The heavy reliance on prepaid subscriptions is reflected two of the top three mobile operators reporting yo-
y decline in their blended ARPU. However, the increasing adoption of 3G services poses an upside risk
to our ARPU forecasts.
• The fixed-line and fixed broadband sectors continue to be outshined by their mobile counterparts, and we
do not foresee a reversal in the trend given that consumers and businesses are clearly favouring the
convenience of mobile solutions and the greater technological advancements.

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