Indonesia Telecommunications Industry Update Quarter 3 2011
$ 1 088
- May 2013
- by Business Monitor International
- 115
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: Indonesia's telecoms market presents good growth opportunities due to its large and youthful
population and extremely low broadband penetration rate. While the mobile industry generates low ARPUs
in light of consumers' preference for prepaid subscriptions, and strong competition among operators and
from alternatives such as fixed-wireless technologies, the long-term outlook is positive as operators are
stepping up efforts to grow the nascent 3G market. Developments in the mobile data sector will also help to
offset disappointing growth in the fixed broadband industry.
Key Data
• Indonesia's top three mobile operators - Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel), Indosat and XL Axiata -
ended 2012 strongly. Consequently, we have upgraded our mobile subscriber estimate and forecasts. We
envisage 361mn subscribers by end-2017, up from 303mn at end-2013.
• The heavy reliance on prepaid subscriptions is reflected two of the top three mobile operators reporting yo-
y decline in their blended ARPU. However, the increasing adoption of 3G services poses an upside risk
to our ARPU forecasts.
• The fixed-line and fixed broadband sectors continue to be outshined by their mobile counterparts, and we
do not foresee a reversal in the trend given that consumers and businesses are clearly favouring the
convenience of mobile solutions and the greater technological advancements.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Mobile SWOT 9
Wireline SWOT 11
Political 13
Economic 15
Business Environment 16
Industry Forecast 17
Mobile 17
Table: Mobile - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 17
ARPU 19
Table: ARPU - Historical Data And Forecasts (IDR) 19
Fixed Line 21
Table: Fixed-Line - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 21
Broadband 23
Table: Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 25
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings 25
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings - Q3 2013 30
Indonesia Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Market Overview 33
Mobile 33
Table: Indonesia Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2012 34
Market Growth 35
Market Shares 35
Table: Indonesia Mobile Subscribers By Operator. 2012 36
Usage 38
Table: Indonesia Prepaid And Postpaid ARPU By Operator (IDR) 39
Networks 39
Table: 2.1GHz WCDMA Spectrum Allocation 42
Mobile Content 43
Table: Selected Value-Added Services 44
Mobile Operator Data 46
Table: Indonesia Mobile Market Overview 46
Table: Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel) 46
Table: Indosat 47
Table: XL Axiata 48
Table: Bakrie Telecom (fixed-wireless) 49
Asia Pacific Mobile Content 51
Fixed-Line 58
Table: Indonesia Fixed-Line Subscriber Growth ('000) 58
Table: Telkom Key Fixed-Line Network Developments 60
Fixed Wireless 61
Broadband 63
Pay-TV/IPTV 65
Submarine Cable Deployment 66
Table: Telkom Key Submarine Cable Developments 68
Mobile Broadband 68
WiMAX 69
Industry Trends And Developments 71
Table: Market Developments 71
Regulatory Development 74
Regulatory Overview 74
Table: Indonesia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 75
Regulatory Developments 76
Competitive Landscape 79
Table: Indonesia Telecoms Sector Key Players 79
Table: Key Operator Revenues (US$mn) 79
Company Profile 80
Telkom 80
Telkomsel 86
Indosat 91
XL Axiata 97
Regional Overview 101
Vendor Profile 101
Financial Performance 101
Table: TSMC Financial Results (TWDbn) 102
Reflecting The Global Mobile Device Demand 102
Table: Wafer Sales By Technology (%) 104
Table: Wafer Sales By Application (%) 105
Risks To Outlook 105
Demographic Forecast 106
Demographic Outlook 106
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 107
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 108
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 109
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 109
Glossary 110
Table: Glossary Of Terms 110
Methodology 112
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 112
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 112
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 113
Table: Ratings Indicators 114
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 115