Indonesia Telecommunications Industry Update Quarter 3 2011

  • May 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 102 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI has revised its projections for Indonesia's mobile communications industry in light of new Q311 data from Telkomsel, XL Axiata and Axis, which recorded sharp increases in their customer bases. Secondplaced Indosat recorded poor growth in Q411. However, we now believe the industry served 268.8mn subscribers at the end of 2011. Much of that growth is attributed to operators' success in delivering affordable mobile broadband services over enhanced 2G networks as well as 3G platforms and meeting demand for portable multimedia devices, such as smartphones (Apple's iPhone and Research In Motion's BlackBerry are popular) and mobile computers.
However, while there is some improvement in the contribution to revenue and ARPUs by non-voice services, bottom-line revenue and ARPUs are not growing very quickly, if at all. This is because operators are focused on voice-centric low-cost prepaid services and short-term price promotions. These certainly help operators to grow their customer bases, but it is likely that many of these customers will cease using the services once their credit is used up. We therefore believe that a substantial proportion of the overall number of registered customers is technically inactive, and unnecessarily weighing on ARPUs.
With Saudi Telecommunications Firms (STC) having taken a more proactive role in growing Axis' mobile business in 2011, and with the newly-merged Smart Telecom/Mobile-8 entity Smartfren looking to grow its small user base in 2012, it is clear that the urge to compete on price will not end soon and customers will continue to be signed up in substantial numbers. This is not sustainable and we expect further consolidation.BMI expects there to be 431.8mn mobile subscribers by 2016, a penetration rate of 169.9%.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary .... 7
Industry SWOT Analysis .... 8
Indonesia Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Business Environment SWOT . 8
Indonesia Mobile Business Environment SWOT . 9
Indonesia Political Environment and Risk Analysis ..... 10
Indonesia Economic Environment and Risk Analysis ... 11
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT .... 12
Risk/Reward Ratings 13
Asia Pacific ...... 13
Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 . 18
Indonesia .. 19

Market Projection Scenario ... 21
Mobile ..... 21
Data : Mobile Historical Data And Projections .. 21
ARPU . 23
Data : ARPU Historical Data And Projections (IDR) 23
Fixed Line ...... 25
Data : Fixed-Line Historical Data And Projections ... 25
Internet.... 26
Data : Telecoms Segment - Internet - Historical Data And Projections ... 26
Market Data Analysis 28
Mobile ..... 28

Industry Analysis ..... 28
Data : Number Of Mobile Subscribers (Q411) . 30
Subscriber Divisions ...... 32
Prepaid ..... 32
Postpaid .... 33
ARPU . 34
3G ...... 35
Mobile Contract Wins .... 38
Data : Mobile Contract Wins, from 2008 to 2010 .. 38
Mobile Operator Data ... 39
Data : Indonesia Mobile Industry Overview 39
Data : Telkomsel ..... 39
Data : Indosat .. 40
Data : XL Axiata ..... 42
Data : Bakrie Telecom ... 44
Mobile Content ..... 45
Regional Outlook .... 45
Data : Selected NFC Developments, 2011 . 47
Country Outlook ... 51
SMS .... 51
Data : Telkomsel SMS Messages Sent (bn) Vs Revenue Per SMS (IDR) ..... 51
Mobile Broadband .. 52
Mobile TV . 53
Other Content .. 54
Data : Selected VAS Services Launched, from 2008 to 2011 ...... 55
Fixed Line ...... 56
Data : Fixed Network Connections, from 2008 to 2010 ('000) .... 56
Telkom: Key Fixed-Line Network Developments, from 2009 to 2011 58
Fixed Wireless . 59
Data : Major Fixed Wireless Operators - Number Of Subscribers (mn) .... 60
Broadband ..... 63
IPTV ... 65
Submarine Cable Deployments .... 66
Data : Telkom - Key Submarine Cable Developments, from 2009 to 2011 ...... 67
WiMAX ..... 67
Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Developments .... 69
Data : Wireline Developments, from 2008 to 2009 69
Regulatory Environment . 70
Indonesia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities ..... 70
Telecommunications Law ...... 71

Industry Developments ... 71

Competition Overview .. 75
Key Players .... 75
Data : Indonesia Telecoms Segment Key Players 75
Data : Key Operators Financial Indicators, from 2004 to 2010 . 75
Company Monitor ..... 76
Samsung Electronics Financial Performance (KRWbn) . 76
Operator Profiles ...... 82
Telkom ...... 82
Telkomsel .. 86
Indosat ...... 90
XL Axiata (Formerly Excelcomindo Axiata) ..... 95
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview .. 98
Mobile 98
Data : Regional Mobile Penetration Overview . 98
Fixed Line . 99
Data : Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview .. 99
Broadband ..... 100
Data : Regional Broadband Penetration Overview ...... 100
Glossary Of Terms .. 101
Data : Glossary Of Terms ... 101
BMI Methodology .... 102
How We Generate Our Market Projections ... 102
Data : Key Indicators For Telecommunications Market Projections .. 102
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings ...... 104
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ... 104
Ratings System ...... 104
Indicators 104
Data : Ratings Indicators .... 105
Weighting 106
Data : Weighting Of Indicators.. 106
Sources ... 106

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