Turkey Food and Drink Report Q3 2014

  • June 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 149 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
We believe that Turkish economic growth, and therefore the Turkish consumer, will face
headwinds in the coming months. We hold a below-consensus view on real GDP and private consumption
growth, which will ultimately lead to slower growth in the food, drink and mass grocery retail industries.
However, we believe that the country offers one of the best global opportunities in terms of consumer
expenditure growth. Turkey's large and youthful population will experience greater income growth as our
forecast period to 2018 develops, which will help drive food and drink consumption. Multinational FMCG
and retail firms are investing in the country at an increasing pace. We see the ongoing formalisation of the
food, drink and mass grocery retail industries forming the backbone of our bullish long-term view on
Turkey.


Headline Industry Data

- 2014 food consumption sales (local currency) growth: +9.9%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
2013 to 2018: +9.9%.
- 2014 food consumption per capita sales (local currency) growth: +8.6%; CAGR to 2018: +8.8%.
- 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales (local currency) growth: +9.3%; CAGR to 2018: +9.4%.
- 2014 soft drinks value sales (local currency) growth: +9.9%; CAGR to 2018: +10.7%.
- 2014 mass grocery retail sales (local currency): +11.7%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018:
+12.3%.

Table Of Contents

Turkey Food and Drink Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View . 7
SWOT 10
Food .... 10
Drink ... 12
Mass Grocery Retail ... 14
Industry Forecast 16
Consumer Outlook . 16
Food .... 19
Food Consumption .... 19
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 20
Confectionery . 20
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . 21
Canned Food . 23
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . 24
Processed Foods .. 25
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts 2011-2018 26
Fish .... 27
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . 27
Snack Foods ... 28
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . 28
Dairy .. 29
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . . 30
Drink ... 33
Alcoholic Drinks .. 33
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . . 33
Soft Drinks 36
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . . 38
Hot Drinks 41
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 . . 41
Mass Grocery Retail ... 43
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 44
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format . 45
Trade ... 46
Table: Food and Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 46
Macroeconomic Forecast . 48
Table: Turkey - GDP By Expenditure 55
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 56
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings .... 56
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Food and Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q314 . 58
Turkey Risk/Reward Ratings ... 62
Market Overview . 63
Food .... 63
Food Consumption .... 63
Food Production .. 63
Confectionery . 64
Agriculture .... 64
Organic Agriculture .. 65
Halal Food .... 66
Drink ... 67
Alcoholic Drinks .. 67
Soft Drinks 69
Table: Soft Drinks Sales Breakdown In Turkey . . 70
Hot Drinks 70
Mass Grocery Retail ... 72
Table: Structure Of Turkey's Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Number Of Outlets, 2003-2011 . 74
Industry Trends And Developments 75
Food .... 75
Key Industry Trends And Developments .. 75
Drink ... 82
Key Industry Trends And Developments .. 82
Mass Grocery Retail ... 92
Key Industry Trends And Developments .. 92
Competitive Landscape ... 101
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Food and Drink Industry . 101
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Mass Grocery Retail Sector . . 101
Company Profile 103
Ãœlker Group .. 103
Nestle Turkey . 105
Anadolu Efes . 108
Coca-Cola ?çecek 111
Migros Turk .. 114
B?M ... 117
Sabanc? Holding .. 120
Tesco Kipa .... 123
Global Industry Overview . 126
Table: Food And Drink Core Views . 138
Demographic Forecast .... 139
Demographic Outlook .... 139
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . 140
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population) . 141
Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . 142
Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . 142
Glossary ... 143
Food and Drink .... 143
Mass Grocery Retail 143
Methodology . 145
Industry Forecast Methodology 145
Sector-Specific Methodology .... 146
Sources .. 146
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology .. 147
Table: Food and Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators . 148
Table: Weighting 149

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