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Turkey Food and Drink Report Q3 2015

  • June 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 115 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
We have revised down our forecasts for Turkey's real GDP growth to 3.5% for 2015. While abundant global liquidity and the collapse in oil prices since June 2014 have been tailwinds for Turkey's short-term outlook, manufacturing activity has collapsed since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, consumer confidence also fell to a six-year low in March; we now forecast real private consumption to grow by 1.8% in 2015. Rising unemployment, lira volatility and persistently high inflation remain impediments to stronger consumer spending, while an increasingly tense political backdrop ahead of general elections in June will continue to weigh on sentiment. We do not believe food consumption growth in Turkey will be drastically affected. We hold this view due to the fact that the slowdown in private final consumption in Turkey will be fuelled by the decline in credit purchases, which typically does not affect non-cyclical household expenditure.

We believe that the country offers one of the best global opportunities in terms of consumer expenditure growth. Turkey's large and youthful population will experience greater income growth as our forecast period to 2019 develops, which will help drive food and drink consumption. Multinational fast-moving consumer goods and retail firms are investing in the country at an increasing pace. We see the ongoing formalisation of the food, drink and mass grocery retail industries forming the backbone of our bullish longterm view on Turkey.

Table Of Contents

Turkey Food and Drink Report Q3 2015
BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT 9
Food ... 9
Drink 11
Mass Grocery Retail 13
Industry Forecast .. 15
Consumer Outlook ... 15
Food . 18
Food Consumption . 18
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2019) 19
Confectionery 19
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2019) . 20
Canned Food 21
Processed Foods 21
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) . . 22
Fish . 22
Snack Foods .. 23
Table: Jams and Jellies Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Turkey 2014-2019) 23
Dairy ... 23
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) . . 24
Drink 25
Alcoholic Drinks 25
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) . 26
Soft Drinks 27
Table: Soft Drink Value and Volume Sales- Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2019) 28
Hot Drinks 29
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 29
Mass Grocery Retail 30
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 31
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format . 31
Trade 32
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) . 32
Macroeconomic Forecast 33
Economic Analysis ... 33
Table: Economic Activity (Turkey 2010-2019) 41
Industry Risk Reward Index . 42
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Index .. 42
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index Q315 44
Turkey Food and Drink Report Q3 2015
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Turkey Risk/Reward Index . 48
Market Overview ... 49
Food . 49
Food Consumption . 49
Food Production 49
Confectionery 50
Agriculture ... 50
Organic Agriculture ... 52
Halal Food ... 52
Drink 53
Alcoholic Drinks 53
Soft Drinks 55
Table: Soft Drinks Sales Breakdown In Turkey . . 56
Hot Drinks 56
Mass Grocery Retail 57
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Turkey 2006-2015) 60
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Turkey 2006-2015) 60
Industry Trends And Developments 61
Food . 61
Key Industry Trends And Developments .. 61
Drink 66
Key Industry Trends And Developments .. 66
Mass Grocery Retail 69
Key Industry Trends And Developments .. 69
Competitive Landscape 72
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Food and Drink Industry . . 72
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Mass Grocery Retail Sector 73
Company Profile 74
Ãœlker Group ... 74
Nestle Turkey .. 76
Anadolu Efes .. 79
Coca-Cola ?çecek 82
Migros Turk ... 84
B?M .. 87
Sabanc? Holding .. 90
Tesco Kipa . 92
Global Industry Overview .. 95
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q115 Roundup 102
Demographic Forecast ... 104
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Turkey 1990-2025) 105
Table: Key Population Ratios (Turkey 1990-2025) 105
Turkey Food and Drink Report Q3 2015
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Turkey 1990-2025) . . 106
Table: Population By Age Group (Turkey 1990-2025) 106
Table: Population By Age Group % (Turkey 1990-2025) 107
Glossary ... 109
Food and Drink .. 109
Mass Grocery Retail . 109
Methodology 111
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 111
Sector-Specific Methodology .. 112
Sources .. 112
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 113
Table: Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators . . 114
Table: Weighting 115

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